I definitely agree that our timelines forecasts should take into account the three phenomena you mention, and I also agree that e.g. Ajeya’s doesn’t talk about this much. I disagree that the effect size of these phenomena is enough to get us to 50 years rather than, say, +5 years to whatever our opinion sans these phenomena was. I also disagree that overall Ajeya’s model is an underestimate of timelines, because while indeed the phenomena you mention should cause us to shade timelines upward, there is a long list of other phenomena I could mention which should cause us to shade timelines downward, and it’s unclear which list is overall more powerful.
On a separate note, would you be interested in a call sometime to discuss timelines? I’d love to share my overall argument with you and hear your thoughts, and I’d love to hear your overall timelines model if you have one.
I definitely agree that our timelines forecasts should take into account the three phenomena you mention, and I also agree that e.g. Ajeya’s doesn’t talk about this much. I disagree that the effect size of these phenomena is enough to get us to 50 years rather than, say, +5 years to whatever our opinion sans these phenomena was. I also disagree that overall Ajeya’s model is an underestimate of timelines, because while indeed the phenomena you mention should cause us to shade timelines upward, there is a long list of other phenomena I could mention which should cause us to shade timelines downward, and it’s unclear which list is overall more powerful.
On a separate note, would you be interested in a call sometime to discuss timelines? I’d love to share my overall argument with you and hear your thoughts, and I’d love to hear your overall timelines model if you have one.