Could you explain in more detail please? I have no idea what you’re talking about. For instance, how do you measure a belief on a −1 to 1 scale?
I expect that means underconfident / overconfident (something like the difference between the probability you gave, and the probability estimate you would give if you had access ot the same information but were perfectly calibrated)
For instance, how do you measure a belief on a −1 to 1 scale?
m = p/50 − 1Where p = percent chance or percent confidence.
Could you explain in more detail please? I have no idea what you’re talking about. For instance, how do you measure a belief on a −1 to 1 scale?
I expect that means underconfident / overconfident (something like the difference between the probability you gave, and the probability estimate you would give if you had access ot the same information but were perfectly calibrated)
m = p/50 − 1
Where p = percent chance or percent confidence.