Maybe to clarify, by question decomposition I mean techniques such as saying ”X will happen if and only if Y1 and Y2 and Y3… all happen, so we estimate P(Y1) and P(Y2|Y1) and P(Y3|Y1,Y2) &c, and then multiply them together to estimate P(X)=P(Y1)⋅P(Y2|Y1)⋅P(Y3|Y2,Y1⋅)⋅…”, which is how it is done in the sources I linked.
Do you by chance have links about how this is done in sports betting? I’d be interested in that.
Maybe to clarify, by question decomposition I mean techniques such as saying ”X will happen if and only if Y1 and Y2 and Y3… all happen, so we estimate P(Y1) and P(Y2|Y1) and P(Y3|Y1,Y2) &c, and then multiply them together to estimate P(X)=P(Y1)⋅P(Y2|Y1)⋅P(Y3|Y2,Y1⋅)⋅…”, which is how it is done in the sources I linked.
Do you by chance have links about how this is done in sports betting? I’d be interested in that.