“What is the empirical evidence for decomposition being a technique that improves forecasts?”
I might be misunderstanding here, but I’m fairly confident that the recent history of predicting sports outcomes and developing live betting odds very strongly supports decomposition as a technique (under some conditions).
It seems like the only rational way of predicting the outcome of a multi-stage sports event (like the FIFA World Cup, for example) is decomposing the chances of a team winning the World Cup into the chances of them winning each previous game. (And then adding a K-factor to adjust to recent results).
Maybe to clarify, by question decomposition I mean techniques such as saying ”X will happen if and only if Y1 and Y2 and Y3… all happen, so we estimate P(Y1) and P(Y2|Y1) and P(Y3|Y1,Y2) &c, and then multiply them together to estimate P(X)=P(Y1)⋅P(Y2|Y1)⋅P(Y3|Y2,Y1⋅)⋅…”, which is how it is done in the sources I linked.
Do you by chance have links about how this is done in sports betting? I’d be interested in that.
“What is the empirical evidence for decomposition being a technique that improves forecasts?”
I might be misunderstanding here, but I’m fairly confident that the recent history of predicting sports outcomes and developing live betting odds very strongly supports decomposition as a technique (under some conditions).
It seems like the only rational way of predicting the outcome of a multi-stage sports event (like the FIFA World Cup, for example) is decomposing the chances of a team winning the World Cup into the chances of them winning each previous game. (And then adding a K-factor to adjust to recent results).
Maybe to clarify, by question decomposition I mean techniques such as saying ”X will happen if and only if Y1 and Y2 and Y3… all happen, so we estimate P(Y1) and P(Y2|Y1) and P(Y3|Y1,Y2) &c, and then multiply them together to estimate P(X)=P(Y1)⋅P(Y2|Y1)⋅P(Y3|Y2,Y1⋅)⋅…”, which is how it is done in the sources I linked.
Do you by chance have links about how this is done in sports betting? I’d be interested in that.