(My reasoning for the jump is that a year doesn’t suffice to drain the dormant accounts at $60 a year, but two would drain most, and then the shut-down becomes a real possibility; and Intrade seems to’ve long been a marginal concern independent of any ill effects from this fee change.)
Those are PB.com predictions; Intrade.com doesn’t have such contracts as far as I know and I certainly wouldn’t buy any contracts if they did, the new fees aside.
Not that I think that it is impossible for this to be the truth; I just think it unlikely:
Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2012.: 5%
Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2013.: 8%
Intrade will close/merge/be sold by 2015.: 18%
(My reasoning for the jump is that a year doesn’t suffice to drain the dormant accounts at $60 a year, but two would drain most, and then the shut-down becomes a real possibility; and Intrade seems to’ve long been a marginal concern independent of any ill effects from this fee change.)
Contracts on “the market ceases to operate and this contract becomes worthless” should be seriously underpriced, no?
(edit: whoops, didn’t even look at the links)
Those are PB.com predictions; Intrade.com doesn’t have such contracts as far as I know and I certainly wouldn’t buy any contracts if they did, the new fees aside.
Wouldn’t you expect contracts on the market ceasing to exist to be seriously underpriced?