I think the factors that determine your reference class can be related to changes over time in the environment you inhabit, not just how you are built. This is what I mean by not necessarily related to reproduction. If I cloned a billion people with the same cloning vat over 1000 years, how then would you determine reference class? But maybe something about the environment would narrow that reference class despite all the people being made by the same process (like the presence or absence of other things in the environment as they relate to the people coming out of the vat).
I think the factors that determine your reference class can be related to changes over time in the environment you inhabit, not just how you are built.
In principle—yes. Different settings of probability experiments naturally lead to different reference classes. But in case of DA this seem to boil down to the question of reproduction.
If I cloned a billion people with the same cloning vat over 1000 years, how then would you determine reference class? But maybe something about the environment would narrow that reference class despite all the people being made by the same process (like the presence or absence of other things in the environment as they relate to the people coming out of the vat).
A person created by this vat may start from assuming that you are a random person from that billion and then adjust their credence based on available evidence as usual. Like if you checked the year of your creation, now you treat yourself as a random person from the people created in this vat specifically in this year. You can frame is as change of reference class or as simple bayesian update on the available evidence.
I think the factors that determine your reference class can be related to changes over time in the environment you inhabit, not just how you are built. This is what I mean by not necessarily related to reproduction. If I cloned a billion people with the same cloning vat over 1000 years, how then would you determine reference class? But maybe something about the environment would narrow that reference class despite all the people being made by the same process (like the presence or absence of other things in the environment as they relate to the people coming out of the vat).
In principle—yes. Different settings of probability experiments naturally lead to different reference classes. But in case of DA this seem to boil down to the question of reproduction.
A person created by this vat may start from assuming that you are a random person from that billion and then adjust their credence based on available evidence as usual. Like if you checked the year of your creation, now you treat yourself as a random person from the people created in this vat specifically in this year. You can frame is as change of reference class or as simple bayesian update on the available evidence.