The above scenario seems perfectly plausible to me
Seems highly unlikely for some risk the properties of which you don’t get to choose. Therefore in no way contradicts the assertion that experts are more likely to become aware of risks.
To large extent everyone is an autodidact, without scare quotes—a lot of learning is done on your own even if you are attending an university. It’s just that some people skip exercises and mistake popularization books for learning material, and so on. Those aren’t more likely to make correct inferences, precisely due to their lack of training in drawing inferences.
edit: and of course there are people who were not able to attend an university, despite intelligence and inclinations towards education, due to factors such as poverty, disability, etc. Some of them manage to learn properly on their own. Those have their work to show for it, various achievements in technical fields, and so on. I wouldn’t put scare quotes around those. And the brightest aren’t going to ignore someone just because they don’t have PhD, or listen to someone just because they do.
Seems highly unlikely for some risk the properties of which you don’t get to choose. Therefore in no way contradicts the assertion that experts are more likely to become aware of risks.
OK, so maybe this turns on how likely “likely” is?
Well, one can always make some unlikely circumstances where something generally unlikely is likely. E.g. it’s unlikely to roll 10 sixes in the row with this die. You can postulate we’re living in a simulator set up so that the die would have 99% probability of rolling 10 sixes, that doesn’t actually make this die likely to roll 10 sixes in the row if its unlikely that we are living in such a simulator. This is just moving improbability around.
Yes, that’s true. So, is that what I was doing all along? It sure looks like it. Oops. Sorry for taking so long to change my mind, and thanks for your persistence and patience.
Seems highly unlikely for some risk the properties of which you don’t get to choose. Therefore in no way contradicts the assertion that experts are more likely to become aware of risks.
To large extent everyone is an autodidact, without scare quotes—a lot of learning is done on your own even if you are attending an university. It’s just that some people skip exercises and mistake popularization books for learning material, and so on. Those aren’t more likely to make correct inferences, precisely due to their lack of training in drawing inferences.
edit: and of course there are people who were not able to attend an university, despite intelligence and inclinations towards education, due to factors such as poverty, disability, etc. Some of them manage to learn properly on their own. Those have their work to show for it, various achievements in technical fields, and so on. I wouldn’t put scare quotes around those. And the brightest aren’t going to ignore someone just because they don’t have PhD, or listen to someone just because they do.
OK, so maybe this turns on how likely “likely” is?
Edit: fixed quotation marks
Well, one can always make some unlikely circumstances where something generally unlikely is likely. E.g. it’s unlikely to roll 10 sixes in the row with this die. You can postulate we’re living in a simulator set up so that the die would have 99% probability of rolling 10 sixes, that doesn’t actually make this die likely to roll 10 sixes in the row if its unlikely that we are living in such a simulator. This is just moving improbability around.
Yes, that’s true. So, is that what I was doing all along? It sure looks like it. Oops. Sorry for taking so long to change my mind, and thanks for your persistence and patience.