Well, one can always make some unlikely circumstances where something generally unlikely is likely. E.g. it’s unlikely to roll 10 sixes in the row with this die. You can postulate we’re living in a simulator set up so that the die would have 99% probability of rolling 10 sixes, that doesn’t actually make this die likely to roll 10 sixes in the row if its unlikely that we are living in such a simulator. This is just moving improbability around.
Yes, that’s true. So, is that what I was doing all along? It sure looks like it. Oops. Sorry for taking so long to change my mind, and thanks for your persistence and patience.
Well, one can always make some unlikely circumstances where something generally unlikely is likely. E.g. it’s unlikely to roll 10 sixes in the row with this die. You can postulate we’re living in a simulator set up so that the die would have 99% probability of rolling 10 sixes, that doesn’t actually make this die likely to roll 10 sixes in the row if its unlikely that we are living in such a simulator. This is just moving improbability around.
Yes, that’s true. So, is that what I was doing all along? It sure looks like it. Oops. Sorry for taking so long to change my mind, and thanks for your persistence and patience.