So it’s unclear why standard decision theory fails here.
To the first approximation, clearly, because you destructively update and thus stop caring about the counterfactuals. Shouldn’t do that. The remaining questions are all about how the standard updating works at all, and in what situations that can be used, and so by extension why it can’t be used here.
To the first approximation, clearly, because you destructively update and thus stop caring about the counterfactuals. Shouldn’t do that. The remaining questions are all about how the standard updating works at all, and in what situations that can be used, and so by extension why it can’t be used here.