Specifically, I strongly agree that flagging is an underused tool in debate moderation.
if people knew masks would have made them safer from day one then there would have been more deaths, not fewer, because masks would have not been available where they’d have saved most lives.
In Slovakia in March 2020, people spontaneously started wearing masks in public despite authorities telling them not to. People started making masks at home, and selling them to their neighbors. A week after the pandemic became a common knowledge here, my wife bought the first dozen masks made of cloth from some lady in neighborhood who advertised them on Facebook. The authorities then changed their minds, and masks became mandatory. So we were fully masked already in March, and there was no shortage. On internet I found a project where volunteers with 3D printers shared recipes for transparent face shields, and donated the printed ones to hospitals. Between March and July, less than 30 people out of 5 500 000 died of covid. (Then we completely screwed up in autumn.)
It was quite surreal watching the rest of internet argue how nothing can be done, and our only choices are letting the sick and elderly die, or destroy the entire economy, because a mask that isn’t N95 looted from a hospital is certainly useless (and somehow there is no way to ramp up their production).
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
It might be I guess… I’m starting to wonder if my memories about the “no mask” period are how most people lived it.
The way it happened for me was that in Italy masks quickly started to go sold out. People started making masks at home here too, I don’t trust my memories 100% but I think that in a week or so most people I saw outside were wearing one.
The narration I remember being pushed by experts was “if you aren’t elderly or at risk in other ways you don’t need one” so I think the attempt was to make sure the few masks available were getting to the most vulnerable citizens… but it might have been that they were just worrying about panic and fistfights breaking out on pharmacies or something, consequences that would “look bad” or weaken the perception of how well the government was handling things. Then again, if people started to panic it’s hard to tell before how serious the consequences would be.
I think the shift toward “wear a mask” here was done gradually and quickly as more masks were being produced, but as I said I wouldn’t trust my memories too much.
A problem with my memories is that I remember interpreting the mask message that was being pushed as… ambivalent from day one.
I’m sure I hadn’t read Lesswrong opinions on it, but I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe. I guess I figured the experts would be able to realise it, so this ought to be an attempt to slow down the starting panic rush toward masks.
A lot of people instead apparently polarised and started arguing against masks because the far right had jumped onboard the “Chinese virus” bandwagon, but at the time I was avoiding any mention of the virus I could because I got fed up with it (I had recently finished a long work about how medias weren’t focusing enough on news about global warming but coverage was improving at last, seeing this attention for a virus that even in the worst possible case of “hundreds of millions of people get infected” would kill significantly less people annoyed me a great deal. Not a rational reaction from my end, but I couldn’t help it) and I was just checking a couple sites for the number of infections and RT, avoiding people and wearing what I could on my face, so I think I missed most of the confusion about it.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
But if people panicked the wrong way the pandemic would have spread faster.
Governments pushed the “don’t panic” button by habitude and didn’t really tried to see through the issue.
In hindsight I guess they should have tried a different way to keep the calm, I think they underestimated how widespread the pandemic would become. Back then the call was harder (but I don’t think they really weighted it rationally).
I wouldn’t be able to estimate the “undermining public trusts in experts” damages.
I attributed the Slovak reaction to cultural experience from socialism. Like, when the authorities told you: “comrades, do not panic, there is no shortage of toilet paper”, you knew you had to run immediately to the nearest shop and stock up, because in the evening it will already be sold out. So when the authorities told us not to buy face masks… :D
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you could burn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it; and some people actually did this (I think there was a guy in Czechia who started mass-producing alcohol-as-disinfectant, got into legal trouble, there was a public outrage and he was pardoned)… anyway, what happened was that shelves were empty for two or three weeks, and then the shops resupplied.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens. As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe.
My reasoning was: people in Asia seem to have more experience with this type of situation, and they wear masks; case closed. Also, this song (note: February 2020; English version made in April).
But yes, common sense also seemed on the side of wearing the masks. Like, maybe they won’t filter all viruses, but at least they should filter some. I guess you needed a “gears model” of infection, so you knew it was not “one particle or millions of particles, you are doomed either way” but rather “fewer particles = smaller chance of infection (and smaller expected damage)”. This probably wasn’t obvious to most people; I have doctors in my family so I knew.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
Definitely. This is one of the things that public television is supposed to exist for, isn’t it?
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you couldburn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it;
This one they handled better, I’m 99% sure that the government started to hand out instructions on how to make disinfectants at home the minute people started trying doing it on their own… I guess it fits my hunch of “prevent flashy, showy bad consequences” as a decisional process, since people self procuring x-degree chemical burns would make the news fast.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens.
I think I disagree on this one. The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message. But once shortages start to happen, people go crazy and start stockpiling more, so you get a random family owning more disinfectant than what they’ll consume in the next three years and a lot of families without. Then the behaviour spreads more and more, people worry what might run out next and so on.
As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
I guess any politician would say “no” just by the thought of the backlash in consensus from the population. The party who’s playing opposition can jump on the “soviet requisitions” bandwagons and pitch the government as an adversary of the people, fighting them on the product they absolutely need to survive.
Even leaving political games aside… I think it would have backfired. The governments back then had the difficult task of convincing people to concede them more authority on their lives and follow restrictions, “sanity dictatorship” has become a rallying cry for protests already. Stuff like this would have made people revolt from day one.
The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message.
There is also uncertainty, and the producers don’t want to oversupply. Starting the panic “collapses” the uncertainty. If some families are going to buy 3 years worth of disinfectants, I want the market to know this, not as a possibility, but as a fact. So that the result is that some families have 3 years worth of disinfectant, and the remaining families have enough.
I agree with the political backlash. Doing the right thing on object level may be a mistake on political level. When you do something, you become responsible for everything that happens, and in situation of pandemic, all outcomes are bad, so the optimal political strategy is probably to stay in background until the situation gets really bad, and then come and save the day. One does not get political points for preventing problems. (After Slovakia successfully defeated covid during spring, many people concluded that it was just a hoax and that all measures were unnecessary. This probably contributed to the reluctance of government to do anything when the numbers started growing exponentially in autumn.)
Thank you for the comment!
Specifically, I strongly agree that flagging is an underused tool in debate moderation.
In Slovakia in March 2020, people spontaneously started wearing masks in public despite authorities telling them not to. People started making masks at home, and selling them to their neighbors. A week after the pandemic became a common knowledge here, my wife bought the first dozen masks made of cloth from some lady in neighborhood who advertised them on Facebook. The authorities then changed their minds, and masks became mandatory. So we were fully masked already in March, and there was no shortage. On internet I found a project where volunteers with 3D printers shared recipes for transparent face shields, and donated the printed ones to hospitals. Between March and July, less than 30 people out of 5 500 000 died of covid. (Then we completely screwed up in autumn.)
It was quite surreal watching the rest of internet argue how nothing can be done, and our only choices are letting the sick and elderly die, or destroy the entire economy, because a mask that isn’t N95 looted from a hospital is certainly useless (and somehow there is no way to ramp up their production).
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
It might be I guess… I’m starting to wonder if my memories about the “no mask” period are how most people lived it.
The way it happened for me was that in Italy masks quickly started to go sold out. People started making masks at home here too, I don’t trust my memories 100% but I think that in a week or so most people I saw outside were wearing one.
The narration I remember being pushed by experts was “if you aren’t elderly or at risk in other ways you don’t need one” so I think the attempt was to make sure the few masks available were getting to the most vulnerable citizens… but it might have been that they were just worrying about panic and fistfights breaking out on pharmacies or something, consequences that would “look bad” or weaken the perception of how well the government was handling things. Then again, if people started to panic it’s hard to tell before how serious the consequences would be.
I think the shift toward “wear a mask” here was done gradually and quickly as more masks were being produced, but as I said I wouldn’t trust my memories too much.
A problem with my memories is that I remember interpreting the mask message that was being pushed as… ambivalent from day one.
I’m sure I hadn’t read Lesswrong opinions on it, but I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe. I guess I figured the experts would be able to realise it, so this ought to be an attempt to slow down the starting panic rush toward masks.
A lot of people instead apparently polarised and started arguing against masks because the far right had jumped onboard the “Chinese virus” bandwagon, but at the time I was avoiding any mention of the virus I could because I got fed up with it (I had recently finished a long work about how medias weren’t focusing enough on news about global warming but coverage was improving at last, seeing this attention for a virus that even in the worst possible case of “hundreds of millions of people get infected” would kill significantly less people annoyed me a great deal. Not a rational reaction from my end, but I couldn’t help it) and I was just checking a couple sites for the number of infections and RT, avoiding people and wearing what I could on my face, so I think I missed most of the confusion about it.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
But if people panicked the wrong way the pandemic would have spread faster.
Governments pushed the “don’t panic” button by habitude and didn’t really tried to see through the issue.
In hindsight I guess they should have tried a different way to keep the calm, I think they underestimated how widespread the pandemic would become. Back then the call was harder (but I don’t think they really weighted it rationally).
I wouldn’t be able to estimate the “undermining public trusts in experts” damages.
I attributed the Slovak reaction to cultural experience from socialism. Like, when the authorities told you: “comrades, do not panic, there is no shortage of toilet paper”, you knew you had to run immediately to the nearest shop and stock up, because in the evening it will already be sold out. So when the authorities told us not to buy face masks… :D
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you could burn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it; and some people actually did this (I think there was a guy in Czechia who started mass-producing alcohol-as-disinfectant, got into legal trouble, there was a public outrage and he was pardoned)… anyway, what happened was that shelves were empty for two or three weeks, and then the shops resupplied.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens. As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
My reasoning was: people in Asia seem to have more experience with this type of situation, and they wear masks; case closed. Also, this song (note: February 2020; English version made in April).
But yes, common sense also seemed on the side of wearing the masks. Like, maybe they won’t filter all viruses, but at least they should filter some. I guess you needed a “gears model” of infection, so you knew it was not “one particle or millions of particles, you are doomed either way” but rather “fewer particles = smaller chance of infection (and smaller expected damage)”. This probably wasn’t obvious to most people; I have doctors in my family so I knew.
Definitely. This is one of the things that public television is supposed to exist for, isn’t it?
This one they handled better, I’m 99% sure that the government started to hand out instructions on how to make disinfectants at home the minute people started trying doing it on their own… I guess it fits my hunch of “prevent flashy, showy bad consequences” as a decisional process, since people self procuring x-degree chemical burns would make the news fast.
I think I disagree on this one. The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message. But once shortages start to happen, people go crazy and start stockpiling more, so you get a random family owning more disinfectant than what they’ll consume in the next three years and a lot of families without. Then the behaviour spreads more and more, people worry what might run out next and so on.
I guess any politician would say “no” just by the thought of the backlash in consensus from the population. The party who’s playing opposition can jump on the “soviet requisitions” bandwagons and pitch the government as an adversary of the people, fighting them on the product they absolutely need to survive.
Even leaving political games aside… I think it would have backfired. The governments back then had the difficult task of convincing people to concede them more authority on their lives and follow restrictions, “sanity dictatorship” has become a rallying cry for protests already. Stuff like this would have made people revolt from day one.
There is also uncertainty, and the producers don’t want to oversupply. Starting the panic “collapses” the uncertainty. If some families are going to buy 3 years worth of disinfectants, I want the market to know this, not as a possibility, but as a fact. So that the result is that some families have 3 years worth of disinfectant, and the remaining families have enough.
I agree with the political backlash. Doing the right thing on object level may be a mistake on political level. When you do something, you become responsible for everything that happens, and in situation of pandemic, all outcomes are bad, so the optimal political strategy is probably to stay in background until the situation gets really bad, and then come and save the day. One does not get political points for preventing problems. (After Slovakia successfully defeated covid during spring, many people concluded that it was just a hoax and that all measures were unnecessary. This probably contributed to the reluctance of government to do anything when the numbers started growing exponentially in autumn.)