As I said, this ban seemed like a pretty good Schelling point. “Don’t organise riots using our private service, thank you very much”. I’ve never really seen in history a democracy turning into a dictatorships due to slippery slopes like these (if one has an example please provide it) usually the power shift happens first, and then the dictatorship and secret police might start with the easiest target first, but the corruption of the core principles always came first.
Edit: I guess the Schelling point only works if 1) it’s a stricter standard politicians are held to 2) there is a clear way to define riots from protests. A Schelling point stating that if you’re a politician you can’t say “great, do it again” when a protest you sponsored turned violent seem to work fine, one that goes “random people or activist said to protest, in the last protest there were episodes of violence, thus we banned him for inciting people to riot and be violent” is clearly more sketchy. I guess I feel safer on social medias pulling this stuff on politicians rather than ordinary people because politicians are a lot harder to silence, and unfairness toward them would be a lot more easy to notice.
But as I mentioned, ordinary people were being banned for praising episodes of violence long before this, so we jumped that point already.
To me, it makes a lot of sense that politicians should be held to stricter standards of ordinary people anyway, since their words have a lot more weight and we saw again and again that people go crazy if they are just left free to say whatever it suits them. End of the edit.
If the social medias didn’t ban Trump once he got this far, well.. that also would have set a precedent, one that, as an Italian, rings a lot more alarm bells to me. Because then any politician can try something like this, and this is exactly how we got fascism the first time.
I mean, if we want to talk about Slippery slopes, a president openly refusing to accept elections and calling for a popular march on the government is jumping headfirst down one, rather than taking a small step. A fence had to be built, since freedom of expression used this way destroys freedom pretty fast once the process starts and the right factors are in place.
Also, suppose the platforms then tried to coordinate on a ban of a less… well, obvious target. The politicians would not miss it and would immediately coordinate to have them back down, the offended party would call every resource it has if threatened this way, and it’s likely that even the enemy party would join in on the effort, I’d expect them to be able to figure out the next obvious steps if they don’t.
Why would social medias even want such a war with powerful figures who can reduce their profit and that the ban of costs them users and backlash every time?
So all in all, not banning Trump was a move a lot more dangerous for slippery slopes.
And that’s just the overt bans. What about coordinated shadowbans? Coordinated removal of positive mentions, and promoting of negative mentions on the front pages?
This worries me a lot more. In all of this, I’d hardly ever say that the social medias platforms are the good guys.
However, this strategy is a lot more effective if people aren’t worrying about the overt bans. If you want to control society and power from the shadows, the last thing you worry is people suddenly becoming all worried on how you do things and who you grant access to.
So I see the Trump ban as something Twitter was forced into by the circumstances, likely to avoid politicians and sponsors wanting to regulate what you can say on the “evil, fascist ridden social media platforms” themselves.
How exactly social medias choose to promote and don’t promote content has been worrying me for a while already. Sadly, normal information medias do it too. Free informations isn’t really as free as people would hope, people, ideas, politicians and corporations have been facilitated or impeded in reaching the public with sketchy reasons for decades now, very few people noticed.
You might want to have a look at research on media accountability and the propaganda model. If you have heard the controversies on it, I’d jump ahead and agree that Norman and Chomsky made questionable decisions in their research on it, but the model validity has still been proven beyond doubt and research from other authors confirmed it again. I confirmed it myself in a research for my master thesis.
On a side note: I think the whole slippery slow threat for democracy has been set as an argument inside the American culture during the cold war, where everything too “lefty” was argued to be a slippery slope for communism, often with “first the government steps into business a bit, then they take your home and then bam, you are a starving soviet peasant”. I’ve heard this reasoning more times than I could count, but it’s not at all how the communist revolution, or the fascist revolutions happened.
It might also be than in Europe the ban on fascism and such has long been in place so nobody worries about it turning some other ways, but there seems to be a cultural component on how worried people are toward the excesses of freedom of speech vs the dangers of limiting freedom of speech.
Second Edit: I had a nagging suspicions I was doing something wrong in this reply. After thinking about it, I feel I’ve focused too much on the “banning Trump, right or wrong” side of the question.
I guess what I am trying to say is that from a larger perspective, I see this as a shift of power: away from elected politicians, towards colluding social media monopolies. People applaud, because the first nuke landed on Trump. Okay, cool. Who is next? And next? Who decides? Quis custodiet ipsos custodes?
This is really a good point.
I still think politicians aren’t the ones at risk here, and that letting excesses slide is more dangerous than stopping them, but as social medias start taking on themselves the role of “guardians” of their content, there should be a lot of focus on the decision processes involved, there should be a lot of caution in how this problem is managed (a “shoot first, ask later” as Youtube did with copyright issues and monetisation would be a disaster), and there should be a lot more transparency in how these companies generally do stuff since they basically have to power to shape society as they desire.
This feels to me as the key point of the issue, the key point to be discussed, rather than the too abstract “freedom of speech vs censorship” and the too specific “banning Trump right or wrong”.
The key question in your post seemed to be regarding how scientific controversies, where evidence is pointing away from consensus, should be handled by these platforms, which was more on the level that I think should be discussed, I’ve accidentally moved the focus away from that first by asking about which examples you were thinking of. Then we moved further from it, I think.
I guess a policy I kinda see as okay on the specific issue of factual accuracy is kinda like
Flagging is better than censoring. Use the first if it seems it can be enough.
While in an emergency, posts contradicting official authorities guidelines are flagged as such. (The CDC wasn’t likely being stupid about masks, if people knew masks would have made them safer from day one then there would have been more deaths, not fewer, because masks would have not been available where they’d have saved most lives. Scientific consensus is rarely wrong, and if the official authorities aren’t following it the problem is much bigger than a social network policy can hope to fix. Once or twice you’d accidentally flag people being right, but science doesn’t move forward by arguing on social networks during times of emergencies, and on average you’d flag a lot more vaccine deniers than rationalists).
While not in an emergency, follow a cautionary principle that limits censorship and flagging to the most extreme cases. Use it only where the false information is proven as false beyond doubt, and the risk it represents for the public is severe.
Keep the decision process as transparent and public as possible.
I feel this guideline is still too lax to hold back most forms of political fake news, which are a huge problem. But if you try to regulate something that can be that capillary, abuses become exponentially more likely, so I don’t think I can think up an effective policy if I haven’t studied the problem in a lot more details.
The policy for banning users that incite to violence, racism or stuff is a different subject yet, but I guess it should still follow a cautionary principle to limit censorship.
Specifically, I strongly agree that flagging is an underused tool in debate moderation.
if people knew masks would have made them safer from day one then there would have been more deaths, not fewer, because masks would have not been available where they’d have saved most lives.
In Slovakia in March 2020, people spontaneously started wearing masks in public despite authorities telling them not to. People started making masks at home, and selling them to their neighbors. A week after the pandemic became a common knowledge here, my wife bought the first dozen masks made of cloth from some lady in neighborhood who advertised them on Facebook. The authorities then changed their minds, and masks became mandatory. So we were fully masked already in March, and there was no shortage. On internet I found a project where volunteers with 3D printers shared recipes for transparent face shields, and donated the printed ones to hospitals. Between March and July, less than 30 people out of 5 500 000 died of covid. (Then we completely screwed up in autumn.)
It was quite surreal watching the rest of internet argue how nothing can be done, and our only choices are letting the sick and elderly die, or destroy the entire economy, because a mask that isn’t N95 looted from a hospital is certainly useless (and somehow there is no way to ramp up their production).
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
It might be I guess… I’m starting to wonder if my memories about the “no mask” period are how most people lived it.
The way it happened for me was that in Italy masks quickly started to go sold out. People started making masks at home here too, I don’t trust my memories 100% but I think that in a week or so most people I saw outside were wearing one.
The narration I remember being pushed by experts was “if you aren’t elderly or at risk in other ways you don’t need one” so I think the attempt was to make sure the few masks available were getting to the most vulnerable citizens… but it might have been that they were just worrying about panic and fistfights breaking out on pharmacies or something, consequences that would “look bad” or weaken the perception of how well the government was handling things. Then again, if people started to panic it’s hard to tell before how serious the consequences would be.
I think the shift toward “wear a mask” here was done gradually and quickly as more masks were being produced, but as I said I wouldn’t trust my memories too much.
A problem with my memories is that I remember interpreting the mask message that was being pushed as… ambivalent from day one.
I’m sure I hadn’t read Lesswrong opinions on it, but I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe. I guess I figured the experts would be able to realise it, so this ought to be an attempt to slow down the starting panic rush toward masks.
A lot of people instead apparently polarised and started arguing against masks because the far right had jumped onboard the “Chinese virus” bandwagon, but at the time I was avoiding any mention of the virus I could because I got fed up with it (I had recently finished a long work about how medias weren’t focusing enough on news about global warming but coverage was improving at last, seeing this attention for a virus that even in the worst possible case of “hundreds of millions of people get infected” would kill significantly less people annoyed me a great deal. Not a rational reaction from my end, but I couldn’t help it) and I was just checking a couple sites for the number of infections and RT, avoiding people and wearing what I could on my face, so I think I missed most of the confusion about it.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
But if people panicked the wrong way the pandemic would have spread faster.
Governments pushed the “don’t panic” button by habitude and didn’t really tried to see through the issue.
In hindsight I guess they should have tried a different way to keep the calm, I think they underestimated how widespread the pandemic would become. Back then the call was harder (but I don’t think they really weighted it rationally).
I wouldn’t be able to estimate the “undermining public trusts in experts” damages.
I attributed the Slovak reaction to cultural experience from socialism. Like, when the authorities told you: “comrades, do not panic, there is no shortage of toilet paper”, you knew you had to run immediately to the nearest shop and stock up, because in the evening it will already be sold out. So when the authorities told us not to buy face masks… :D
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you could burn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it; and some people actually did this (I think there was a guy in Czechia who started mass-producing alcohol-as-disinfectant, got into legal trouble, there was a public outrage and he was pardoned)… anyway, what happened was that shelves were empty for two or three weeks, and then the shops resupplied.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens. As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe.
My reasoning was: people in Asia seem to have more experience with this type of situation, and they wear masks; case closed. Also, this song (note: February 2020; English version made in April).
But yes, common sense also seemed on the side of wearing the masks. Like, maybe they won’t filter all viruses, but at least they should filter some. I guess you needed a “gears model” of infection, so you knew it was not “one particle or millions of particles, you are doomed either way” but rather “fewer particles = smaller chance of infection (and smaller expected damage)”. This probably wasn’t obvious to most people; I have doctors in my family so I knew.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
Definitely. This is one of the things that public television is supposed to exist for, isn’t it?
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you couldburn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it;
This one they handled better, I’m 99% sure that the government started to hand out instructions on how to make disinfectants at home the minute people started trying doing it on their own… I guess it fits my hunch of “prevent flashy, showy bad consequences” as a decisional process, since people self procuring x-degree chemical burns would make the news fast.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens.
I think I disagree on this one. The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message. But once shortages start to happen, people go crazy and start stockpiling more, so you get a random family owning more disinfectant than what they’ll consume in the next three years and a lot of families without. Then the behaviour spreads more and more, people worry what might run out next and so on.
As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
I guess any politician would say “no” just by the thought of the backlash in consensus from the population. The party who’s playing opposition can jump on the “soviet requisitions” bandwagons and pitch the government as an adversary of the people, fighting them on the product they absolutely need to survive.
Even leaving political games aside… I think it would have backfired. The governments back then had the difficult task of convincing people to concede them more authority on their lives and follow restrictions, “sanity dictatorship” has become a rallying cry for protests already. Stuff like this would have made people revolt from day one.
The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message.
There is also uncertainty, and the producers don’t want to oversupply. Starting the panic “collapses” the uncertainty. If some families are going to buy 3 years worth of disinfectants, I want the market to know this, not as a possibility, but as a fact. So that the result is that some families have 3 years worth of disinfectant, and the remaining families have enough.
I agree with the political backlash. Doing the right thing on object level may be a mistake on political level. When you do something, you become responsible for everything that happens, and in situation of pandemic, all outcomes are bad, so the optimal political strategy is probably to stay in background until the situation gets really bad, and then come and save the day. One does not get political points for preventing problems. (After Slovakia successfully defeated covid during spring, many people concluded that it was just a hoax and that all measures were unnecessary. This probably contributed to the reluctance of government to do anything when the numbers started growing exponentially in autumn.)
As I said, this ban seemed like a pretty good Schelling point. “Don’t organise riots using our private service, thank you very much”. I’ve never really seen in history a democracy turning into a dictatorships due to slippery slopes like these (if one has an example please provide it) usually the power shift happens first, and then the dictatorship and secret police might start with the easiest target first, but the corruption of the core principles always came first.
Edit: I guess the Schelling point only works if 1) it’s a stricter standard politicians are held to 2) there is a clear way to define riots from protests. A Schelling point stating that if you’re a politician you can’t say “great, do it again” when a protest you sponsored turned violent seem to work fine, one that goes “random people or activist said to protest, in the last protest there were episodes of violence, thus we banned him for inciting people to riot and be violent” is clearly more sketchy. I guess I feel safer on social medias pulling this stuff on politicians rather than ordinary people because politicians are a lot harder to silence, and unfairness toward them would be a lot more easy to notice.
But as I mentioned, ordinary people were being banned for praising episodes of violence long before this, so we jumped that point already.
To me, it makes a lot of sense that politicians should be held to stricter standards of ordinary people anyway, since their words have a lot more weight and we saw again and again that people go crazy if they are just left free to say whatever it suits them. End of the edit.
If the social medias didn’t ban Trump once he got this far, well.. that also would have set a precedent, one that, as an Italian, rings a lot more alarm bells to me. Because then any politician can try something like this, and this is exactly how we got fascism the first time.
I mean, if we want to talk about Slippery slopes, a president openly refusing to accept elections and calling for a popular march on the government is jumping headfirst down one, rather than taking a small step. A fence had to be built, since freedom of expression used this way destroys freedom pretty fast once the process starts and the right factors are in place.
Also, suppose the platforms then tried to coordinate on a ban of a less… well, obvious target. The politicians would not miss it and would immediately coordinate to have them back down, the offended party would call every resource it has if threatened this way, and it’s likely that even the enemy party would join in on the effort, I’d expect them to be able to figure out the next obvious steps if they don’t.
Why would social medias even want such a war with powerful figures who can reduce their profit and that the ban of costs them users and backlash every time?
So all in all, not banning Trump was a move a lot more dangerous for slippery slopes.
This worries me a lot more. In all of this, I’d hardly ever say that the social medias platforms are the good guys.
However, this strategy is a lot more effective if people aren’t worrying about the overt bans. If you want to control society and power from the shadows, the last thing you worry is people suddenly becoming all worried on how you do things and who you grant access to.
So I see the Trump ban as something Twitter was forced into by the circumstances, likely to avoid politicians and sponsors wanting to regulate what you can say on the “evil, fascist ridden social media platforms” themselves.
How exactly social medias choose to promote and don’t promote content has been worrying me for a while already. Sadly, normal information medias do it too. Free informations isn’t really as free as people would hope, people, ideas, politicians and corporations have been facilitated or impeded in reaching the public with sketchy reasons for decades now, very few people noticed.
You might want to have a look at research on media accountability and the propaganda model. If you have heard the controversies on it, I’d jump ahead and agree that Norman and Chomsky made questionable decisions in their research on it, but the model validity has still been proven beyond doubt and research from other authors confirmed it again. I confirmed it myself in a research for my master thesis.
On a side note: I think the whole slippery slow threat for democracy has been set as an argument inside the American culture during the cold war, where everything too “lefty” was argued to be a slippery slope for communism, often with “first the government steps into business a bit, then they take your home and then bam, you are a starving soviet peasant”. I’ve heard this reasoning more times than I could count, but it’s not at all how the communist revolution, or the fascist revolutions happened.
It might also be than in Europe the ban on fascism and such has long been in place so nobody worries about it turning some other ways, but there seems to be a cultural component on how worried people are toward the excesses of freedom of speech vs the dangers of limiting freedom of speech.
Second Edit: I had a nagging suspicions I was doing something wrong in this reply. After thinking about it, I feel I’ve focused too much on the “banning Trump, right or wrong” side of the question.
This is really a good point.
I still think politicians aren’t the ones at risk here, and that letting excesses slide is more dangerous than stopping them, but as social medias start taking on themselves the role of “guardians” of their content, there should be a lot of focus on the decision processes involved, there should be a lot of caution in how this problem is managed (a “shoot first, ask later” as Youtube did with copyright issues and monetisation would be a disaster), and there should be a lot more transparency in how these companies generally do stuff since they basically have to power to shape society as they desire.
This feels to me as the key point of the issue, the key point to be discussed, rather than the too abstract “freedom of speech vs censorship” and the too specific “banning Trump right or wrong”.
The key question in your post seemed to be regarding how scientific controversies, where evidence is pointing away from consensus, should be handled by these platforms, which was more on the level that I think should be discussed, I’ve accidentally moved the focus away from that first by asking about which examples you were thinking of. Then we moved further from it, I think.
I guess a policy I kinda see as okay on the specific issue of factual accuracy is kinda like
Flagging is better than censoring. Use the first if it seems it can be enough.
While in an emergency, posts contradicting official authorities guidelines are flagged as such. (The CDC wasn’t likely being stupid about masks, if people knew masks would have made them safer from day one then there would have been more deaths, not fewer, because masks would have not been available where they’d have saved most lives. Scientific consensus is rarely wrong, and if the official authorities aren’t following it the problem is much bigger than a social network policy can hope to fix. Once or twice you’d accidentally flag people being right, but science doesn’t move forward by arguing on social networks during times of emergencies, and on average you’d flag a lot more vaccine deniers than rationalists).
While not in an emergency, follow a cautionary principle that limits censorship and flagging to the most extreme cases. Use it only where the false information is proven as false beyond doubt, and the risk it represents for the public is severe.
Keep the decision process as transparent and public as possible.
I feel this guideline is still too lax to hold back most forms of political fake news, which are a huge problem. But if you try to regulate something that can be that capillary, abuses become exponentially more likely, so I don’t think I can think up an effective policy if I haven’t studied the problem in a lot more details.
The policy for banning users that incite to violence, racism or stuff is a different subject yet, but I guess it should still follow a cautionary principle to limit censorship.
Thank you for the comment!
Specifically, I strongly agree that flagging is an underused tool in debate moderation.
In Slovakia in March 2020, people spontaneously started wearing masks in public despite authorities telling them not to. People started making masks at home, and selling them to their neighbors. A week after the pandemic became a common knowledge here, my wife bought the first dozen masks made of cloth from some lady in neighborhood who advertised them on Facebook. The authorities then changed their minds, and masks became mandatory. So we were fully masked already in March, and there was no shortage. On internet I found a project where volunteers with 3D printers shared recipes for transparent face shields, and donated the printed ones to hospitals. Between March and July, less than 30 people out of 5 500 000 died of covid. (Then we completely screwed up in autumn.)
It was quite surreal watching the rest of internet argue how nothing can be done, and our only choices are letting the sick and elderly die, or destroy the entire economy, because a mask that isn’t N95 looted from a hospital is certainly useless (and somehow there is no way to ramp up their production).
So, I remain firmly convinced that discouraging people from wearing masks caused deaths. In short term, by making the pandemic spread faster. In long term, by undermining public trusts in experts.
It might be I guess… I’m starting to wonder if my memories about the “no mask” period are how most people lived it.
The way it happened for me was that in Italy masks quickly started to go sold out. People started making masks at home here too, I don’t trust my memories 100% but I think that in a week or so most people I saw outside were wearing one.
The narration I remember being pushed by experts was “if you aren’t elderly or at risk in other ways you don’t need one” so I think the attempt was to make sure the few masks available were getting to the most vulnerable citizens… but it might have been that they were just worrying about panic and fistfights breaking out on pharmacies or something, consequences that would “look bad” or weaken the perception of how well the government was handling things. Then again, if people started to panic it’s hard to tell before how serious the consequences would be.
I think the shift toward “wear a mask” here was done gradually and quickly as more masks were being produced, but as I said I wouldn’t trust my memories too much.
A problem with my memories is that I remember interpreting the mask message that was being pushed as… ambivalent from day one.
I’m sure I hadn’t read Lesswrong opinions on it, but I remember clearly I had concluded from the start that masks had to help reduce the spread of the virus because they would reduce how far you’d breathe. I guess I figured the experts would be able to realise it, so this ought to be an attempt to slow down the starting panic rush toward masks.
A lot of people instead apparently polarised and started arguing against masks because the far right had jumped onboard the “Chinese virus” bandwagon, but at the time I was avoiding any mention of the virus I could because I got fed up with it (I had recently finished a long work about how medias weren’t focusing enough on news about global warming but coverage was improving at last, seeing this attention for a virus that even in the worst possible case of “hundreds of millions of people get infected” would kill significantly less people annoyed me a great deal. Not a rational reaction from my end, but I couldn’t help it) and I was just checking a couple sites for the number of infections and RT, avoiding people and wearing what I could on my face, so I think I missed most of the confusion about it.
Thinking through it now, my guess is that instructions on how to make a mask at home or what to use as a quick fix would have likely contained the pandemic more and prevented more deaths.
But if people panicked the wrong way the pandemic would have spread faster.
Governments pushed the “don’t panic” button by habitude and didn’t really tried to see through the issue.
In hindsight I guess they should have tried a different way to keep the calm, I think they underestimated how widespread the pandemic would become. Back then the call was harder (but I don’t think they really weighted it rationally).
I wouldn’t be able to estimate the “undermining public trusts in experts” damages.
I attributed the Slovak reaction to cultural experience from socialism. Like, when the authorities told you: “comrades, do not panic, there is no shortage of toilet paper”, you knew you had to run immediately to the nearest shop and stock up, because in the evening it will already be sold out. So when the authorities told us not to buy face masks… :D
People also stocked up with disinfectants. (I don’t remember whether authorities mentioned these, or it was just common sense.) This seemed more tricky, because making disinfectants at home… well, you could burn some strong alcohol, you wouldn’t even have to worry about toxicity if you do not intend to drink it; and some people actually did this (I think there was a guy in Czechia who started mass-producing alcohol-as-disinfectant, got into legal trouble, there was a public outrage and he was pardoned)… anyway, what happened was that shelves were empty for two or three weeks, and then the shops resupplied.
Which again makes me think that if there is a risk of panic and shortage, you might want it to happen sooner rather than later, so that the market has enough time to adapt before the worst happens. As a government, you could even contribute to the shortage, by buying tons of stuff… and later redistributing it to the places of greatest need: sell it to hospitals for the original price, thus shielding them from shortage and price hikes.
My reasoning was: people in Asia seem to have more experience with this type of situation, and they wear masks; case closed. Also, this song (note: February 2020; English version made in April).
But yes, common sense also seemed on the side of wearing the masks. Like, maybe they won’t filter all viruses, but at least they should filter some. I guess you needed a “gears model” of infection, so you knew it was not “one particle or millions of particles, you are doomed either way” but rather “fewer particles = smaller chance of infection (and smaller expected damage)”. This probably wasn’t obvious to most people; I have doctors in my family so I knew.
Definitely. This is one of the things that public television is supposed to exist for, isn’t it?
This one they handled better, I’m 99% sure that the government started to hand out instructions on how to make disinfectants at home the minute people started trying doing it on their own… I guess it fits my hunch of “prevent flashy, showy bad consequences” as a decisional process, since people self procuring x-degree chemical burns would make the news fast.
I think I disagree on this one. The market starts producing as soon as it suspects there might be panic and shortage, I don’t think that shops running out are actually needed for industries getting the message. But once shortages start to happen, people go crazy and start stockpiling more, so you get a random family owning more disinfectant than what they’ll consume in the next three years and a lot of families without. Then the behaviour spreads more and more, people worry what might run out next and so on.
I guess any politician would say “no” just by the thought of the backlash in consensus from the population. The party who’s playing opposition can jump on the “soviet requisitions” bandwagons and pitch the government as an adversary of the people, fighting them on the product they absolutely need to survive.
Even leaving political games aside… I think it would have backfired. The governments back then had the difficult task of convincing people to concede them more authority on their lives and follow restrictions, “sanity dictatorship” has become a rallying cry for protests already. Stuff like this would have made people revolt from day one.
There is also uncertainty, and the producers don’t want to oversupply. Starting the panic “collapses” the uncertainty. If some families are going to buy 3 years worth of disinfectants, I want the market to know this, not as a possibility, but as a fact. So that the result is that some families have 3 years worth of disinfectant, and the remaining families have enough.
I agree with the political backlash. Doing the right thing on object level may be a mistake on political level. When you do something, you become responsible for everything that happens, and in situation of pandemic, all outcomes are bad, so the optimal political strategy is probably to stay in background until the situation gets really bad, and then come and save the day. One does not get political points for preventing problems. (After Slovakia successfully defeated covid during spring, many people concluded that it was just a hoax and that all measures were unnecessary. This probably contributed to the reluctance of government to do anything when the numbers started growing exponentially in autumn.)