The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it’s as much of a conjunction fallacy as “My entire leg will function.” Note that this also means that if one of the articles in the Sequences is wrong, it doesn’t even mean Eliezer has made a grievous mistake. I have Nick Tarleton to thank for this insight, but I can’t find where he originally said it.
The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it’s as much of a conjunction fallacy as “My entire leg will function.”
Even professional runners will occasionally trip. Even Terry Tao occasionally makes a math error.
The point isn’t that even highly reliable processes are likely to output some bad ideas over the long term.
The error in your comment is that the sequences were all created by a few reliable processes, so it’s as much of a conjunction fallacy as “My entire leg will function.” Note that this also means that if one of the articles in the Sequences is wrong, it doesn’t even mean Eliezer has made a grievous mistake. I have Nick Tarleton to thank for this insight, but I can’t find where he originally said it.
Even professional runners will occasionally trip. Even Terry Tao occasionally makes a math error.
The point isn’t that even highly reliable processes are likely to output some bad ideas over the long term.
I think it’s a Kaasism.