Is this 100k personal money or money budjeted for going to donation? Why being only able to give 60k because of lost 40k on the downturn is less important than being able to give 400 060 000 on the upturn?
If you calculate the bet size having your personal money as the reference level but evaluate impact how much you were going to give seems inconsistent. If you have 100k personal and bet 40k and only give the bet proceeds to donation then the reference level is 40k instead of 100k (assuming that without taking the oppportunity you would have just donated your ante directly).
Yes, good catch. I edited. I made two mistakes in the above:
confused personal money with “altruistic money”: In the beginning of the comment I assumed that all money would be donated, and none kept. By the end of my comment, my mental model has apparently shifted to also include personal money/”selfish money” (which would be justified for people to keep).
I included a range of numbers for the possible bet size, and thought that lower bet amounts would be justified due to diminishing returns. Checking the numbers again, the diminishing returns are not that significant (at the scale of $1B likely far below 10x), and my opinion is now that you should bet everything.
Is this 100k personal money or money budjeted for going to donation? Why being only able to give 60k because of lost 40k on the downturn is less important than being able to give 400 060 000 on the upturn?
If you calculate the bet size having your personal money as the reference level but evaluate impact how much you were going to give seems inconsistent. If you have 100k personal and bet 40k and only give the bet proceeds to donation then the reference level is 40k instead of 100k (assuming that without taking the oppportunity you would have just donated your ante directly).
Yes, good catch. I edited. I made two mistakes in the above:
confused personal money with “altruistic money”: In the beginning of the comment I assumed that all money would be donated, and none kept. By the end of my comment, my mental model has apparently shifted to also include personal money/”selfish money” (which would be justified for people to keep).
I included a range of numbers for the possible bet size, and thought that lower bet amounts would be justified due to diminishing returns. Checking the numbers again, the diminishing returns are not that significant (at the scale of $1B likely far below 10x), and my opinion is now that you should bet everything.