Yes, good catch. I edited. I made two mistakes in the above:
confused personal money with “altruistic money”: In the beginning of the comment I assumed that all money would be donated, and none kept. By the end of my comment, my mental model has apparently shifted to also include personal money/”selfish money” (which would be justified for people to keep).
I included a range of numbers for the possible bet size, and thought that lower bet amounts would be justified due to diminishing returns. Checking the numbers again, the diminishing returns are not that significant (at the scale of $1B likely far below 10x), and my opinion is now that you should bet everything.
Yes, good catch. I edited. I made two mistakes in the above:
confused personal money with “altruistic money”: In the beginning of the comment I assumed that all money would be donated, and none kept. By the end of my comment, my mental model has apparently shifted to also include personal money/”selfish money” (which would be justified for people to keep).
I included a range of numbers for the possible bet size, and thought that lower bet amounts would be justified due to diminishing returns. Checking the numbers again, the diminishing returns are not that significant (at the scale of $1B likely far below 10x), and my opinion is now that you should bet everything.