if somehow you don’t think foom is going to happen any year now, you also would think alignment is easy
Not necessarily. Given an expectation that previously somewhat effective alignment techniques stop working at AGI/ASI thresholds, and the no second chances issue with getting experimental feedback, alignment doesn’t become much easier even if it’s decades away. In that hypothetical there is time to build up theory for some chance of finding things that are helpful in advance, but it’s not predictably crucial.
Not necessarily. Given an expectation that previously somewhat effective alignment techniques stop working at AGI/ASI thresholds, and the no second chances issue with getting experimental feedback, alignment doesn’t become much easier even if it’s decades away. In that hypothetical there is time to build up theory for some chance of finding things that are helpful in advance, but it’s not predictably crucial.