If scientists do believe that they are ethically bound to improve the lot of ordinary people, or at least to decrease violence and increase possibilities for the pursuit of happiness, as I do, then perhaps the greatest challenge — and one that has been wholly overlooked here — is “how do we as scientists advance reason in an inherently unreasonable world?” This is a very difficult issue and one that cannot be seriously addressed by simply trying to muscle science and reason into everyday or momentous human affairs. I am privy to hostage negotiations, and be assured that simply telling hostage takers their beliefs are bullshit will get you the opposite of what you want, like the hostage’s head delivered on a platter. Of course, that’s an extreme case; but reason by backward induction towards the less extreme cases in the actual political and social conditions of our present world and you will find that the tactics proposed at the conference for an unlikely strategic shift in humankind’s thinking will most probably blowback and backfire. And I almost thank God that even the best of our scientists are not prominent political negotiators or policymakers.
I am privy to hostage negotiations, and be assured that simply telling hostage takers their beliefs are bullshit will get you the opposite of what you want, like the hostage’s head delivered on a platter. Of course, that’s an extreme case;
That’s not an ‘extreme’ case, it’s a misleading one. What kind of idiot tries to make a point about the means used to achieve the goal of “Advancing reason” by pointing out that the same means won’t work for rescuing a hostage?
Um, yes. That action A is bad for goal X isn’t evidence that it’s bad for goal Y, unless Y is very similar to X. “Saving the hostage” and “Advancing reason” aren’t similar goals.
Leaving aside your claim that Atran’s analogy is idiotic, the evidence seems to point away from your claim that this idiocy is self-evident to this audience. The Atran quote stands at 7 votes, while your comment stands at –2 votes.
That isn’t proof, of course. Upvoting doesn’t necessarily imply agreement, though the upvoters—and I am one—probably consider the quote to be at least non-idiotic. And your comment’s downvotes (none of which are mine) may be due more to its strong language than to disagreement. But still, isn’t this strong evidence that the quote’s idiocy is not self-evident to the rest of this audience?
That quote is valued for more than its objectively shoddy analogy. Its larger point is plausible and potentially useful. However, I’d like to see some experimental evidence that shows how well mocking+shaming people with dumb beliefs works; polite persuasion is definitely pretty ineffective.
Also, on average, more people read and vote on a parent comment than its reply. Without seeing the number of total (approximate) views and downvotes, you can’t be sure what people think of it.
Furcas is right: the only way in which the hostage-takers are an extreme case is: suppose they have especially irrational beliefs, and that your goal is to make them more rational with high-rudeness persuasion/shaming; then they are more likely to become extremely angry (decapitating a hostage) than to be persuaded. If that’s what Atran intended, he communicated it unclearly. Likely, it’s just illogical emotional rhetoric.
It’s definitely obvious upon weighing that the “extreme case” analogy is flawed; still, Furcas could have saved the world (but not himself) time by laying out the case before being challenged.
However, I’d like to see some experimental evidence that shows how well mocking+shaming people with dumb beliefs works; polite persuasion is definitely pretty ineffective.
I agree that such experimental evidence would be valuable. My guess is that the effectiveness is determined primarily by the respective statuses of the mocker and the mockee within the mockee’s own tribe. If the mockee doesn’t consider the mocker to be sufficiently high-status in that tribe, then the mockee will elect to gain status within the tribe by counter-mocking the mocker.
The problem with mocking religious extremists is that we are low-status in their tribes. To get our mocking to work, we need to gain status in their tribes first. By starting off with the mocking, we are just giving the extremists opportunities to gain status, and lessen our own, by mocking us.
It’s useful to remember that mocking is a very cheap signal. Pretty much anyone with a certain minimum of free time and verbal wit can do it. Even successful mocking (that is, mockery that increases your status and decreases the mockee’s within your tribe) doesn’t correlate strongly with being right in most tribes. This is especially the case in the tribes where religious extremism has a lot of purchase.
-- Scott Atran
That’s not an ‘extreme’ case, it’s a misleading one. What kind of idiot tries to make a point about the means used to achieve the goal of “Advancing reason” by pointing out that the same means won’t work for rescuing a hostage?
You have not made the case that the point is idiotic. Are you under the impression that the idiocy is self-evident to this audience?
Um, yes. That action A is bad for goal X isn’t evidence that it’s bad for goal Y, unless Y is very similar to X. “Saving the hostage” and “Advancing reason” aren’t similar goals.
Leaving aside your claim that Atran’s analogy is idiotic, the evidence seems to point away from your claim that this idiocy is self-evident to this audience. The Atran quote stands at 7 votes, while your comment stands at –2 votes.
That isn’t proof, of course. Upvoting doesn’t necessarily imply agreement, though the upvoters—and I am one—probably consider the quote to be at least non-idiotic. And your comment’s downvotes (none of which are mine) may be due more to its strong language than to disagreement. But still, isn’t this strong evidence that the quote’s idiocy is not self-evident to the rest of this audience?
That quote is valued for more than its objectively shoddy analogy. Its larger point is plausible and potentially useful. However, I’d like to see some experimental evidence that shows how well mocking+shaming people with dumb beliefs works; polite persuasion is definitely pretty ineffective.
Also, on average, more people read and vote on a parent comment than its reply. Without seeing the number of total (approximate) views and downvotes, you can’t be sure what people think of it.
Furcas is right: the only way in which the hostage-takers are an extreme case is: suppose they have especially irrational beliefs, and that your goal is to make them more rational with high-rudeness persuasion/shaming; then they are more likely to become extremely angry (decapitating a hostage) than to be persuaded. If that’s what Atran intended, he communicated it unclearly. Likely, it’s just illogical emotional rhetoric.
It’s definitely obvious upon weighing that the “extreme case” analogy is flawed; still, Furcas could have saved the world (but not himself) time by laying out the case before being challenged.
I agree that such experimental evidence would be valuable. My guess is that the effectiveness is determined primarily by the respective statuses of the mocker and the mockee within the mockee’s own tribe. If the mockee doesn’t consider the mocker to be sufficiently high-status in that tribe, then the mockee will elect to gain status within the tribe by counter-mocking the mocker.
The problem with mocking religious extremists is that we are low-status in their tribes. To get our mocking to work, we need to gain status in their tribes first. By starting off with the mocking, we are just giving the extremists opportunities to gain status, and lessen our own, by mocking us.
It’s useful to remember that mocking is a very cheap signal. Pretty much anyone with a certain minimum of free time and verbal wit can do it. Even successful mocking (that is, mockery that increases your status and decreases the mockee’s within your tribe) doesn’t correlate strongly with being right in most tribes. This is especially the case in the tribes where religious extremism has a lot of purchase.