The constant improvements in nuclear tech will lead to multiple small terrorist organizations possessing portable nuclear bombs. We’ll likely see at least a few major cities suffering drastic losses from terrorist threats.
Gene therapy will be strongly encouraged in some developed nations. Near the same level of encouragement as vaccines receive.
Pollution of the oceans will take over as the most popular pressing environmental issue.
We’re trending towards health and medical decisions being looked at from a societal perspective rather than on the individual level.[1] . People who use alternative medicine are increasingly shamed not only for the effect their choice has on their own health, but for the effect it has on the health of others and the financial burden it puts on the medical system. Medical interventions later on are more costly therefore those 4 months you tried on herbal remedies hurt everybody who has to pay for your medical treatment. Refusing a vaccine not only increases burden the medical system will have taking care of you, but increases the risk that others will also get infected.
Gene therapy, specifically editing the genes of newborns, is the archetypal preventative medical procedure. Parents who have a baby they know will more than likely have a genetic disease and likely be an extra burden on the medical system will be shamed for that decision and the solution will be gene therapy.
That shame will be turned into laws. The natural extension of gene therapy laws for preventing known high likelihoods of genetic mutation will be gene therapy to prevent speculative risk and then just possible risk.
Privately-Owned Nukes
Honestly this doesn’t even require improvements in nuclear tech. The only necessary ingredient is a couple of smart people joining a terrorist organization that wants to cause mass destruction and has the disposable resources of a small business. The design of nuclear bombs is freely available online, the actual engineering process is more arcane, but still learnable. The hardest part of the process is acquiring enough weapons grade uranium or plutonium. But even those can be made from scratch with access to a mine (even though spy movies always focus on the terrorist’s stealing their nuclear material). So my first lemma is that even though it hasn’t happened yet, it’s pretty easy for a small group to create a nuclear bomb. And that’s mostly based on my rudimentary knowledge of the comparative difficulty of creating a nuclear bomb vs. making a giant automotive plant or a
What’s been holding private nuke construction back is a lack of impetus and general ineffectiveness of terrorists. But that’s not a real bar to the end result. Over time there likely will be a statistical outlier terrorist organization that has a few smart people and the desire to construct nuclear bombs. And for them it will be easy.
Taxpayer funded healthcare is the norm. Politicians talk about the opiod crisis and blame doctors for over-prescribing, people protest drug companies because they raise prices too high, a few national and international organizations have been setting the global policy on infectious disease handling for over a year now
The constant improvements in nuclear tech will lead to multiple small terrorist organizations possessing portable nuclear bombs. We’ll likely see at least a few major cities suffering drastic losses from terrorist threats.
Gene therapy will be strongly encouraged in some developed nations. Near the same level of encouragement as vaccines receive.
Pollution of the oceans will take over as the most popular pressing environmental issue.
I’m especially interested in the nuclear bomb and gene therapy predictions; care to elaborate & explain your reasoning / evidence?
Mandated Gene Therapy
We’re trending towards health and medical decisions being looked at from a societal perspective rather than on the individual level.[1] . People who use alternative medicine are increasingly shamed not only for the effect their choice has on their own health, but for the effect it has on the health of others and the financial burden it puts on the medical system. Medical interventions later on are more costly therefore those 4 months you tried on herbal remedies hurt everybody who has to pay for your medical treatment. Refusing a vaccine not only increases burden the medical system will have taking care of you, but increases the risk that others will also get infected.
Gene therapy, specifically editing the genes of newborns, is the archetypal preventative medical procedure. Parents who have a baby they know will more than likely have a genetic disease and likely be an extra burden on the medical system will be shamed for that decision and the solution will be gene therapy.
That shame will be turned into laws. The natural extension of gene therapy laws for preventing known high likelihoods of genetic mutation will be gene therapy to prevent speculative risk and then just possible risk.
Privately-Owned Nukes
Honestly this doesn’t even require improvements in nuclear tech. The only necessary ingredient is a couple of smart people joining a terrorist organization that wants to cause mass destruction and has the disposable resources of a small business. The design of nuclear bombs is freely available online, the actual engineering process is more arcane, but still learnable. The hardest part of the process is acquiring enough weapons grade uranium or plutonium. But even those can be made from scratch with access to a mine (even though spy movies always focus on the terrorist’s stealing their nuclear material). So my first lemma is that even though it hasn’t happened yet, it’s pretty easy for a small group to create a nuclear bomb. And that’s mostly based on my rudimentary knowledge of the comparative difficulty of creating a nuclear bomb vs. making a giant automotive plant or a
What’s been holding private nuke construction back is a lack of impetus and general ineffectiveness of terrorists. But that’s not a real bar to the end result. Over time there likely will be a statistical outlier terrorist organization that has a few smart people and the desire to construct nuclear bombs. And for them it will be easy.
Taxpayer funded healthcare is the norm. Politicians talk about the opiod crisis and blame doctors for over-prescribing, people protest drug companies because they raise prices too high, a few national and international organizations have been setting the global policy on infectious disease handling for over a year now