Ships as precedent for AI: Lots of the arguments against fast takeoff, against AGI, against discontinuous takeoff, against local takeoff and decisive strategic advantage, are somewhat mirrored by arguments that could have been made in the middle ages about ships. I think that history turned out to mostly support the fast/AGI/discontinuous/local/DSA side of those arguments.
Ships as precedent for AI: Lots of the arguments against fast takeoff, against AGI, against discontinuous takeoff, against local takeoff and decisive strategic advantage, are somewhat mirrored by arguments that could have been made in the middle ages about ships. I think that history turned out to mostly support the fast/AGI/discontinuous/local/DSA side of those arguments.