Admittedly I’ve not looked into how metaculus works. How would I go about registering such a prediction?
Understanding that there was randomization failure, and that that failure was at the expense of ivermectin takes about 10-15 minutes for someone who can do addition and subtraction to understand—I’ve got all the receipts here:
Maybe a little more time if they want to confirm the receipts and make sure there’s no credible counter-argument to be made. It’s either that, or the numbers coming out of the trial are false—not sure which is worse.
Ever since I’ve written that post, I’ve seen more internal data from the trial that confirms it.
How would I go about getting people to bet against me on this? And crucially, how would it help get the data released? I already offered to donate $25k to ACX Grants if Scott helps get the data released, which is my main objective. Will this help in that direction?
You can create a new Metaculus question. After you created it the moderators at Metaculus decide whether the question is specific enough. If they release it, otherwise they give feedback about what needs improvement.
That’s likely a good first step to create the Metaculus question as the process helps make the question well-defined.
How would I go about getting people to bet against me on this?
If nobody bets against you, you say on Twitter that nobody is willing to bet against you because they don’t sincerely believe you are wrong.
That will either gets people to bet against you, or you got a good way to demonstrate to people who are not willing to read through all your posts that you are likely telling the truth.
I already offered to donate $25k to ACX Grants if Scott helps get the data released, which is my main objective.
If Scott wanted more money for ACX Grants he could ask the FTX Foundation and likely get it in a way that causes him much less of a headache. Donating $25k to ACX Grants is costly for you but not very motivating for Scott.
And crucially, how would it help get the data released?
A market on when the data will get released. You put in money that it won’t get released. People who bet that the data will be released have an incentive to do things that get the data released.
Rationalists like Scott care about using prediction markets to resolve scientific questions. If the market can’t resolve because they violate their promise to release the data, that’s likely to feel viscerally wrong to people like Scott and be more motivating than the $25k to ACX Grants.
I also expect it to make a bunch of rationalists who currently are not interested in reading posts about Ivermectin curious to figure out what’s going on.
Much of this sounds very speculative, to be completely honest, and I’m not sure I agree with your diagnosis of what “rationalists like Scott care” about.
I would be interested in hearing what prediction, specifically, would be interesting and specific enough to put up on metaculus. Or was that the one about the data not being released? Because I’m actively working on multiple fronts to get it released, so “predicting it won’t” just feels wrong.
It seems that you believe that the data getting openly released will have a positive effect in convincing people to take another look at Ivermectin and/or believing that we currently have evidence that it works.
If that’s true, than there’s likely something that you think could be specified that one will learn from the data being openly released.
You can also just bet on the probability that you consider to be valid for the data to get released. That still sets the incentive for people to more the probability by taking actions to make it more likely that the data gets released.
Admittedly I’ve not looked into how metaculus works. How would I go about registering such a prediction?
Understanding that there was randomization failure, and that that failure was at the expense of ivermectin takes about 10-15 minutes for someone who can do addition and subtraction to understand—I’ve got all the receipts here:
https://doyourownresearch.substack.com/p/demonstrating-randomization-failure
Maybe a little more time if they want to confirm the receipts and make sure there’s no credible counter-argument to be made. It’s either that, or the numbers coming out of the trial are false—not sure which is worse.
Ever since I’ve written that post, I’ve seen more internal data from the trial that confirms it.
How would I go about getting people to bet against me on this? And crucially, how would it help get the data released? I already offered to donate $25k to ACX Grants if Scott helps get the data released, which is my main objective. Will this help in that direction?
You can create a new Metaculus question. After you created it the moderators at Metaculus decide whether the question is specific enough. If they release it, otherwise they give feedback about what needs improvement.
That’s likely a good first step to create the Metaculus question as the process helps make the question well-defined.
If nobody bets against you, you say on Twitter that nobody is willing to bet against you because they don’t sincerely believe you are wrong.
That will either gets people to bet against you, or you got a good way to demonstrate to people who are not willing to read through all your posts that you are likely telling the truth.
If Scott wanted more money for ACX Grants he could ask the FTX Foundation and likely get it in a way that causes him much less of a headache. Donating $25k to ACX Grants is costly for you but not very motivating for Scott.
A market on when the data will get released. You put in money that it won’t get released. People who bet that the data will be released have an incentive to do things that get the data released.
Rationalists like Scott care about using prediction markets to resolve scientific questions. If the market can’t resolve because they violate their promise to release the data, that’s likely to feel viscerally wrong to people like Scott and be more motivating than the $25k to ACX Grants.
I also expect it to make a bunch of rationalists who currently are not interested in reading posts about Ivermectin curious to figure out what’s going on.
Much of this sounds very speculative, to be completely honest, and I’m not sure I agree with your diagnosis of what “rationalists like Scott care” about.
I would be interested in hearing what prediction, specifically, would be interesting and specific enough to put up on metaculus. Or was that the one about the data not being released? Because I’m actively working on multiple fronts to get it released, so “predicting it won’t” just feels wrong.
It seems that you believe that the data getting openly released will have a positive effect in convincing people to take another look at Ivermectin and/or believing that we currently have evidence that it works.
If that’s true, than there’s likely something that you think could be specified that one will learn from the data being openly released.
You can also just bet on the probability that you consider to be valid for the data to get released. That still sets the incentive for people to more the probability by taking actions to make it more likely that the data gets released.