Much of this sounds very speculative, to be completely honest, and I’m not sure I agree with your diagnosis of what “rationalists like Scott care” about.
I would be interested in hearing what prediction, specifically, would be interesting and specific enough to put up on metaculus. Or was that the one about the data not being released? Because I’m actively working on multiple fronts to get it released, so “predicting it won’t” just feels wrong.
It seems that you believe that the data getting openly released will have a positive effect in convincing people to take another look at Ivermectin and/or believing that we currently have evidence that it works.
If that’s true, than there’s likely something that you think could be specified that one will learn from the data being openly released.
You can also just bet on the probability that you consider to be valid for the data to get released. That still sets the incentive for people to more the probability by taking actions to make it more likely that the data gets released.
Much of this sounds very speculative, to be completely honest, and I’m not sure I agree with your diagnosis of what “rationalists like Scott care” about.
I would be interested in hearing what prediction, specifically, would be interesting and specific enough to put up on metaculus. Or was that the one about the data not being released? Because I’m actively working on multiple fronts to get it released, so “predicting it won’t” just feels wrong.
It seems that you believe that the data getting openly released will have a positive effect in convincing people to take another look at Ivermectin and/or believing that we currently have evidence that it works.
If that’s true, than there’s likely something that you think could be specified that one will learn from the data being openly released.
You can also just bet on the probability that you consider to be valid for the data to get released. That still sets the incentive for people to more the probability by taking actions to make it more likely that the data gets released.