tl;dr LLMs make search cost more, much more, and thus significantly threaten GOOG’s bottom line. MSFT knows this, and is explicitly using Bing Sydney as an attack on GOOG.
I’m not questioning the capabilities of GOOG’s AI department, I’m sure Deepmind have the shiniest toys.
But it’s hardly bullish for their share price if their core revenue stream is about to be decapitated or perhaps even entirely destroyed—ad based revenue has been on shaky ground for a while now, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that one day the bottom will fall out.
re: EMH in general
EMH gets weaker the less attention an asset has, the further out in time relevant information is (with significant drops around 1yr, 2yr, 5yr), and the more antimemetic that relevant information is (i.e. Sin is consistently undervalued because it makes people feel bad to think about. Most recently we saw this in coal, and I’m kicking myself for not getting in on that trade.).
Will GOOG go up? Maybe. Is GOOG undervalued? Extremely unlikely.
People will spend much more time on Google’s properties interacting with Bard instead of visiting reference websites from the search results. Google will also be able to target their ads more accurately because users will type in much more information about what they want. I’m bullish on their stock after the recent drop but I also own MSFT.
Re: EMH is false, long GOOG
I wish you’d picked a better example.
… but wait it gets worse
tl;dr LLMs make search cost more, much more, and thus significantly threaten GOOG’s bottom line.
MSFT knows this, and is explicitly using Bing Sydney as an attack on GOOG.
I’m not questioning the capabilities of GOOG’s AI department, I’m sure Deepmind have the shiniest toys.
But it’s hardly bullish for their share price if their core revenue stream is about to be decapitated or perhaps even entirely destroyed—ad based revenue has been on shaky ground for a while now, I don’t think it’s inconceivable that one day the bottom will fall out.
re: EMH in general
EMH gets weaker the less attention an asset has, the further out in time relevant information is (with significant drops around 1yr, 2yr, 5yr), and the more antimemetic that relevant information is (i.e. Sin is consistently undervalued because it makes people feel bad to think about. Most recently we saw this in coal, and I’m kicking myself for not getting in on that trade.).
Will GOOG go up? Maybe.
Is GOOG undervalued? Extremely unlikely.
People will spend much more time on Google’s properties interacting with Bard instead of visiting reference websites from the search results. Google will also be able to target their ads more accurately because users will type in much more information about what they want. I’m bullish on their stock after the recent drop but I also own MSFT.