I’m going to start by attacking this a little on my own before I even look much at what other people have done.
Some initial observations from the SQL+Python practice this gave me a good excuse to do:
Adelon looks to have rough matchups against Elf Monks. Which we don’t have. They are however soft to even level 3-4 challengers sometimes. Maybe Monks and/or Fencers have an edge on Warriors?
Bauchard seems to have particularly strong matchups against other Knights, so we don’t send Velaya there. They seem a little soft to Monks and to Dwarf Ninjas and especially to Knights, so maybe Zelaya? Boots should help here.
Cadagal has precious few defeats, but one of them might be to a level 2(!) Human Warrior with fancy +3 Gauntlets. Though it seems like there’s a lot of combats where some Cadagal-like fighter has +4 Boots instead? Not sure if that’s the same guy.
And on that note, the max level is 7, and the max bonus for Boots and Gauntlets both is +4.
Max Boots (+4) is always on a level 7 Elf Ninja with +3 Gauntlets (but disappears altogether most of the way through the dataset).
Max Gauntlets (+4) is on either a level 7 Dwarf Monk who upgraded from +1 Boots to +3 Boots halfway through, or else there’s two of them. Thankfully we’re not facing them.
Deepwrack poses problems. They have just as few defeats, and one of them even contradicts the ordering I derived below! Ninjas are meant to lose to Monks. Maybe the speed matters a lot in that case?
It looks like a strict advantage in level or gear—holding all else constant—means you win every time. If everything is totally identical, you win about half the time. (Which seems obvious but worth checking.)
Looking through upsets—bouts where the classes are different, the losing fighter had at least 2 levels on the winner, and the loser’s gear was no better than the winner’s—we generally see that:
Fencers beat Monks and Rangers and lose to Knights, Ninjas, and Warriors
Knights beat Fencers and Ninjas, tie(???) with Monks and Warriors, and lose (weakly) to Rangers
Monks beat Ninjas, Rangers, and maybe Warriors, tie (?) with Knights, and lose to Fencers
Ninjas beat Fencers and (weakly) Rangers, and lose to Knights, Monks, and Warriors
Rangers beat Knights (weakly), Ninjas, and Warriors, tie with Fencers, and lose to Monks
Warriors beat Fencers, Ninjas, tie(?) with Knights, and lose to Rangers and maybe Monks
So my current best guess (pending understanding which gear is best for which class/race) is:
Willow v Adelon, Varina v Bauchard, Xerxes v Cadagal, Yalathinel v Deepwrack.
If I had to guess what gear to give to who: Warrior v Knight is a rough matchup, so Varina’s going to need the help; the rest of my assignments are based thus far on ~vibes~ for whether speed or power will matter more for the class. Thus:
Willow gets +2 Boots and +1 Gauntlets, Varina gets +4 Boots and +3 Gauntlets, Xerxes gets +1 Boots and +2 Gauntlets, and Yalathinel gets +3 Boots.
Some theories I need to test:
Race affects how good you are at a class. Elves might be best at rangering, say.
Race and/or class affect how much benefit you get out of boots and/or gauntlets. Being a warrior might mean you get full benefit from gauntlets but none from boots.
Color might affect how well classes do. Ninjas wearing red might win way less often.
The color does not actually seem to affect ninjas all that much if at all − 6963 vs 6762 wins. Could still be a tiebreaker?
Color doesn’t affect things much overall either: 40136 vs 39961 wins.
There’s some rank-ordering of class+race+level matchups, maybe an additive one.
Alternatively there could be some nontransitive thing going on with tiebreaks sometimes from levels, races, and gear?
On further reflection that totally seems to be what’s going on here.
Maybe there’s something about the matchup ordering being sorted over (race, class)? D’s loss (as a L6 Dwarf Monk) to a L4 Dwarf Ninja is… unexpected to say the least!
Wild speculation:
If you [use the +4 Boots in combat and beat Cadagal then they’ll know you were] responsible [for] ????? ?????? [Boots from his/her/the] House. [You will gain its] lasting enmity, [and] [people? will?] ???????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ??? [upon] your honor [if] ????????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? friendship ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?? ?? ?????.
So maybe we’re OK to use the +4 Boots as long as it’s not against Cadagal?
No idea how to even guess at what’s going on in that second sentence apart from “bad things will happen and everyone will hate you, you dirty thief”.
I’m going to start by attacking this a little on my own before I even look much at what other people have done.
Some initial observations from the SQL+Python practice this gave me a good excuse to do:
Adelon looks to have rough matchups against Elf Monks. Which we don’t have. They are however soft to even level 3-4 challengers sometimes. Maybe Monks and/or Fencers have an edge on Warriors?
Bauchard seems to have particularly strong matchups against other Knights, so we don’t send Velaya there. They seem a little soft to Monks and to Dwarf Ninjas and especially to Knights, so maybe Zelaya? Boots should help here.
Cadagal has precious few defeats, but one of them might be to a level 2(!) Human Warrior with fancy +3 Gauntlets. Though it seems like there’s a lot of combats where some Cadagal-like fighter has +4 Boots instead? Not sure if that’s the same guy.
And on that note, the max level is 7, and the max bonus for Boots and Gauntlets both is +4.
Max Boots (+4) is always on a level 7 Elf Ninja with +3 Gauntlets (but disappears altogether most of the way through the dataset).
Max Gauntlets (+4) is on either a level 7 Dwarf Monk who upgraded from +1 Boots to +3 Boots halfway through, or else there’s two of them. Thankfully we’re not facing them.
Deepwrack poses problems. They have just as few defeats, and one of them even contradicts the ordering I derived below! Ninjas are meant to lose to Monks. Maybe the speed matters a lot in that case?
It looks like a strict advantage in level or gear—holding all else constant—means you win every time. If everything is totally identical, you win about half the time. (Which seems obvious but worth checking.)
Looking through upsets—bouts where the classes are different, the losing fighter had at least 2 levels on the winner, and the loser’s gear was no better than the winner’s—we generally see that:
Fencers beat Monks and Rangers and lose to Knights, Ninjas, and Warriors
Knights beat Fencers and Ninjas, tie(???) with Monks and Warriors, and lose (weakly) to Rangers
Monks beat Ninjas, Rangers, and maybe Warriors, tie (?) with Knights, and lose to Fencers
Ninjas beat Fencers and (weakly) Rangers, and lose to Knights, Monks, and Warriors
Rangers beat Knights (weakly), Ninjas, and Warriors, tie with Fencers, and lose to Monks
Warriors beat Fencers, Ninjas, tie(?) with Knights, and lose to Rangers and maybe Monks
So my current best guess (pending understanding which gear is best for which class/race) is:
Willow v Adelon, Varina v Bauchard, Xerxes v Cadagal, Yalathinel v Deepwrack.
If I had to guess what gear to give to who: Warrior v Knight is a rough matchup, so Varina’s going to need the help; the rest of my assignments are based thus far on ~vibes~ for whether speed or power will matter more for the class. Thus:
Willow gets +2 Boots and +1 Gauntlets, Varina gets +4 Boots and +3 Gauntlets, Xerxes gets +1 Boots and +2 Gauntlets, and Yalathinel gets +3 Boots.
Some theories I need to test:
Race affects how good you are at a class. Elves might be best at rangering, say.
Race and/or class affect how much benefit you get out of boots and/or gauntlets. Being a warrior might mean you get full benefit from gauntlets but none from boots.
Color might affect how well classes do. Ninjas wearing red might win way less often.
The color does not actually seem to affect ninjas all that much if at all − 6963 vs 6762 wins. Could still be a tiebreaker?
Color doesn’t affect things much overall either: 40136 vs 39961 wins.
There’s some rank-ordering of class+race+level matchups, maybe an additive one.
Alternatively there could be some nontransitive thing going on with tiebreaks sometimes from levels, races, and gear?
On further reflection that totally seems to be what’s going on here.
Maybe there’s something about the matchup ordering being sorted over (race, class)? D’s loss (as a L6 Dwarf Monk) to a L4 Dwarf Ninja is… unexpected to say the least!
Wild speculation:
If you [use the +4 Boots in combat and beat Cadagal then they’ll know you were] responsible [for] ????? ?????? [Boots from his/her/the] House. [You will gain its] lasting enmity, [and] [people? will?] ???????? ???? ??? ???? ?? ??? ???? ??????? ?? ?? ????? ?? ????????? ?? ??? [upon] your honor [if] ????????? ???? ?? ???? ??? ???? ??? ??? friendship ???? ?? ??? ???? ?? ??? ?????? ??????? ?? ?? ?????.
So maybe we’re OK to use the +4 Boots as long as it’s not against Cadagal?
No idea how to even guess at what’s going on in that second sentence apart from “bad things will happen and everyone will hate you, you dirty thief”.