I agree that if overhang is a relevant consideration for pauses, then it’s also a relevant consideration for RSPs. My previous question was: Do you see the same people invoking overhang as an argument against pauses and also talking about RSPs as though they are not also impacted?
Maybe you’re not saying that there are people taking that position, but rather that those who invoke overhang as an argument against pauses don’t seem to be equally vocal against RSPs (if not necessarily in favor of them either). I can think of a couple of separate reasons this could be the case:
To the extent I think a pause is bad (for example, because of overhang), I might still be more motivated to prioritize arguing against “unconditional pause” than “maybe pause in the future”, even if the argument could apply to both. This is especially true if I consider the prospect of an unconditional pause a legitimate, near-term threat.
If I think a pause introduces a high, additional risk, and I think the base level of risk is low, it seems clear that I should not introduce that high risk. But if I get new evidence that there is an immediate, even-higher risk, which a pause could help mitigate, I should be willing to roll the dice on the pause, which now comes with a net reduction in risk.
(2) isn’t a very reassuring position, but it does suggest that “immediate pause bad because overhang” and “RSPs good [in spite of overhang]” are logically compatible.
Do you see the same people invoking overhang as an argument against pauses and also talking about RSPs as though they are not also impacted?
I guess I’m not tracking this closely enough. I’m not really that focussed on any one arguer’s individual priorities, but more about the discourse in general. Basically, I think that overhang is a consideration for unconditional pauses if and only if it’s a consideration for RSPs, so it’s a bad thing if overhang is brought up as an argument against unconditional pauses and not against RSPs, because this will distort the world’s ability to figure out the costs and benefits of each kind of policy.
Also, to be clear, it’s not impossible that RSPs are all things considered better than unconditional pauses, and better than nothing, despite overhang. But if so, I’d hope someone somewhere would have written a piece saying “RSPs have the cost of causing overhang, but on net are worth it”.
I agree that if overhang is a relevant consideration for pauses, then it’s also a relevant consideration for RSPs. My previous question was: Do you see the same people invoking overhang as an argument against pauses and also talking about RSPs as though they are not also impacted?
Maybe you’re not saying that there are people taking that position, but rather that those who invoke overhang as an argument against pauses don’t seem to be equally vocal against RSPs (if not necessarily in favor of them either). I can think of a couple of separate reasons this could be the case:
To the extent I think a pause is bad (for example, because of overhang), I might still be more motivated to prioritize arguing against “unconditional pause” than “maybe pause in the future”, even if the argument could apply to both. This is especially true if I consider the prospect of an unconditional pause a legitimate, near-term threat.
If I think a pause introduces a high, additional risk, and I think the base level of risk is low, it seems clear that I should not introduce that high risk. But if I get new evidence that there is an immediate, even-higher risk, which a pause could help mitigate, I should be willing to roll the dice on the pause, which now comes with a net reduction in risk.
(2) isn’t a very reassuring position, but it does suggest that “immediate pause bad because overhang” and “RSPs good [in spite of overhang]” are logically compatible.
I guess I’m not tracking this closely enough. I’m not really that focussed on any one arguer’s individual priorities, but more about the discourse in general. Basically, I think that overhang is a consideration for unconditional pauses if and only if it’s a consideration for RSPs, so it’s a bad thing if overhang is brought up as an argument against unconditional pauses and not against RSPs, because this will distort the world’s ability to figure out the costs and benefits of each kind of policy.
Also, to be clear, it’s not impossible that RSPs are all things considered better than unconditional pauses, and better than nothing, despite overhang. But if so, I’d hope someone somewhere would have written a piece saying “RSPs have the cost of causing overhang, but on net are worth it”.