Looking at that page, I wonder whether the price would be different if it was in BTC rather than USD. Right now, if I’m confident enough in blockchain to put a large amount on this exchange, holding that amount in USD rather than BTC for several months seems like a substantial cost to such a person, perhaps on the order of what you can win in this market.
I’m not sure I understand your argument, given that FTX allows traders to keep balances in both USD and BTC, but in any case historically FTX prices have been in line with Betfair/PredictIt prices, so I doubt this consideration is relevant.
I haven’t used FTX because illegal in USA slash usual worries. So you could deposit BTC, bet on the election, and if you win always get back your BTC+15%? Or not?
The contracts are denominated in USD, and they pay in that currency. But you trade on margin, and the collateral can be in any currency (crypto or fiat). In your example, you get back the BTC plus 15% of what that BTC was worth in USD when you made the trade.
Incidentally, TRUMPFEB is now trading at 0.16 (i.e. implied 16% chance that Trump is president next February). This looks insane to me (and I have bet accordingly). I’d be curious if you or others have further thoughts on what might be going on.
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of the FTX exchange seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
Looking at that page, I wonder whether the price would be different if it was in BTC rather than USD. Right now, if I’m confident enough in blockchain to put a large amount on this exchange, holding that amount in USD rather than BTC for several months seems like a substantial cost to such a person, perhaps on the order of what you can win in this market.
I’m not sure I understand your argument, given that FTX allows traders to keep balances in both USD and BTC, but in any case historically FTX prices have been in line with Betfair/PredictIt prices, so I doubt this consideration is relevant.
I haven’t used FTX because illegal in USA slash usual worries. So you could deposit BTC, bet on the election, and if you win always get back your BTC+15%? Or not?
The contracts are denominated in USD, and they pay in that currency. But you trade on margin, and the collateral can be in any currency (crypto or fiat). In your example, you get back the BTC plus 15% of what that BTC was worth in USD when you made the trade.
Incidentally, TRUMPFEB is now trading at 0.16 (i.e. implied 16% chance that Trump is president next February). This looks insane to me (and I have bet accordingly). I’d be curious if you or others have further thoughts on what might be going on.
What were (or are now) the best places for US persons interested in betting significant crypto sums?
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of FTX seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).
The short answer is yes: you could bet in BTC because FTX pools collateral across all positions: https://help.ftx.com/hc/en-us/articles/360027946371-Margin-Collateral
Side note: the counterparty risk (either from hacks or scams) of the FTX exchange seems extremely low right now. The team behind FTX/Alameda has built flawless reputation in the crypto industry over the past few years, and is considered among the strongest technically. They basically went from non-existent to top ~3 of crypto exchanges worldwide in volumes in a matter of ~1 year. I think FTX will continue to grow, as (1) crypto grows as a whole; and (2) FTX innovates and grows more than the competition.
For US residents, www.ftx.us is available (but more restricted).