That goes too far. What happens is that the line is less accurate than normal, and there will almost always be good value if you look around the various offerings. But there are a lot of forces that will come in hard if the number gets super wrong, and a lot of ways for even relatively dumb money to know more or less what the odds should be. So if a WC match is actually 65-35, it might be 60-40 or 70-30 instead, which is a great opportunity, but it’s not going to be useless. It depends what you already know—you should have a fair value in mind, expect a second value that’s different, then look at what you find. And if it’s not what you expected, maybe you modeled the public wrong, but also maybe you’re missing something.
Basically, if you want to know who the favorite is, the line is trustworthy unless it’s super close (52-48 or something). Exactly how big a favorite, or especially various secondary lines, and you get less trustworthy.
In an election, you don’t have those kind of anchors, so it’s easier to get far out of whack.
That goes too far. What happens is that the line is less accurate than normal, and there will almost always be good value if you look around the various offerings. But there are a lot of forces that will come in hard if the number gets super wrong, and a lot of ways for even relatively dumb money to know more or less what the odds should be. So if a WC match is actually 65-35, it might be 60-40 or 70-30 instead, which is a great opportunity, but it’s not going to be useless. It depends what you already know—you should have a fair value in mind, expect a second value that’s different, then look at what you find. And if it’s not what you expected, maybe you modeled the public wrong, but also maybe you’re missing something.
Basically, if you want to know who the favorite is, the line is trustworthy unless it’s super close (52-48 or something). Exactly how big a favorite, or especially various secondary lines, and you get less trustworthy.
In an election, you don’t have those kind of anchors, so it’s easier to get far out of whack.