We all have heard it claimed that 13 is an “unlucky number.” [...]
There would be no plausible scientific mechanism to make any such things happen, unless there were an extremely bizarre kind of intelligence ruling our universe—and this would go so profoundly against the laws of physics as we know them that our entire scientific worldview would be toppled if such a pattern involving the number 13 were true. [...]
The point is that such an article would not only be about the luckiness or unluckiness of the number 13, but it would also necessarily (if only implicitly) be about the entire nature of the universe we live in, since if 13 really were provably unlucky in any sense at all, then all bets would be off about the laws of physics, for the laws of physics are simply not compatible with such a finding.
Why add the detail of incompatibility with the laws of physics? The predictions made from laws of physics alone (in 13-ish situations), and so the model conferred by the laws of physics, would err if there was this additional bizarre factor, but among all this confusion one can’t make conclusive statements about the laws of physics. The strangeness could well be implemented within physics as we know it.
you believe deeply in science and this deep belief implies that the article is necessarily, certainly, undoubtedly wrong in some fashion, and that the flaws in it should be found and exposed, rather than publishing it prematurely....…
There has to be a common sense cutoff for craziness, and when that threshold is exceeded, then the criteria for publication should get far, far more stringent.
The charitable interpretation of Hofstadter’s comment is that the likelihood of 13-been-unlucky is so low that we should look extra hard for flaws in the arguments of papers purporting to prove it than we would for less controversial papers. He seems to be suggesting that a more rigorous review would have meant the paper would not be published, or at least not published ‘prematurely’. Sounds sensible.
I have a bizarre nitpick.
Hofstadter writes:
Why add the detail of incompatibility with the laws of physics? The predictions made from laws of physics alone (in 13-ish situations), and so the model conferred by the laws of physics, would err if there was this additional bizarre factor, but among all this confusion one can’t make conclusive statements about the laws of physics. The strangeness could well be implemented within physics as we know it.
The charitable interpretation of Hofstadter’s comment is that the likelihood of 13-been-unlucky is so low that we should look extra hard for flaws in the arguments of papers purporting to prove it than we would for less controversial papers. He seems to be suggesting that a more rigorous review would have meant the paper would not be published, or at least not published ‘prematurely’. Sounds sensible.
A.K.A. “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence”. :)