Since the rational agent in SBP has full knowledge of the experimental set-up, she has no need of any subjective credence: any bet she takes can be made solely on the facts of the experiment.
Paradoxes like SBP seem to evaporate if you distinguish two types of credence: (A) credence for the experiment that the agent is a part of, vs. (B) credence for the outcomes encountered within the experiment. Type (A) credence for the experimental protocol is all you need for decision-making. Type (B) credence is implied by the experimental protocol and adds nothing to the agent’s decision-making capabilities, so you’re free to define that however you wish.
I think my argument is more stark: I’m saying that there are fundamentally two types of credence, (A) and (B) in the comment above, and only one of them is relevant to rational decision-making.
I agree with intuition being the thing that separates Halfers and Thirders, but I’m saying that they’re fighting over irrelevant Type (B) credence—“inner” credence in the OOBR post I linked to.
I’ve added the Sleeping Beauty tag for you.
Since the rational agent in SBP has full knowledge of the experimental set-up, she has no need of any subjective credence: any bet she takes can be made solely on the facts of the experiment.
Paradoxes like SBP seem to evaporate if you distinguish two types of credence: (A) credence for the experiment that the agent is a part of, vs. (B) credence for the outcomes encountered within the experiment. Type (A) credence for the experimental protocol is all you need for decision-making. Type (B) credence is implied by the experimental protocol and adds nothing to the agent’s decision-making capabilities, so you’re free to define that however you wish.
See https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ecgHXWQBiuY97B2X/ for more detail.
From your description here, it sounds like we’re arguing essentially the same thing, but you think it’s different? How?
I think my argument is more stark: I’m saying that there are fundamentally two types of credence, (A) and (B) in the comment above, and only one of them is relevant to rational decision-making.
I agree with intuition being the thing that separates Halfers and Thirders, but I’m saying that they’re fighting over irrelevant Type (B) credence—“inner” credence in the OOBR post I linked to.
“And only one of them is relevant to rational decision-making”—okay, that’s a significant difference!