Ahhhh this is so nice! I suspect a substantial fraction of people would revise their timelines after seeing what they look like visually. I think encouraging people to plot out their timelines is probably a pretty cost-effective intervention.
Sounds like we could have a thread for that. The image above looks great, would be interested in seeing more comparisons like it, if they’re easy to generate using elicit.
Whoa, I hadn’t noticed that. The old predictions put 40% probability on AGI being developed in a 5 year window
That was going to be my initial comment, then I noticed that the blog post addresses that problem. Not sufficiently IMO.
Yea this was a lot more obvious to me when I plotted visually: https://elicit.ought.org/builder/om4oCj7jm
(NB: I work on Elicit and it’s still a WIP tool)
Ahhhh this is so nice! I suspect a substantial fraction of people would revise their timelines after seeing what they look like visually. I think encouraging people to plot out their timelines is probably a pretty cost-effective intervention.
Sounds like we could have a thread for that. The image above looks great, would be interested in seeing more comparisons like it, if they’re easy to generate using elicit.
Yes, let’s please create a thread. If you don’t I will. Here’s mine: (Ignore the name, I can’t figure out how to change it)
https://elicit.ought.org/builder/xt516PmHt
Can you make the thread (make it a question post?) and share it with me? Then I’ll suggest any rewrites and we can publish it?
I shared it with you and jungofthewon; maybe they could help me include some sort of instructions for how to use Elicit?
I can help with this if you share the post with me!
Thanks so much!
You want to change “Your Distribution” to something like “Daniel’s 2020 distribution”?
Could you help me by writing some instructions for how to use Elicit, to be put in my question on the topic? (See discussion with Ben above)
Yes, but I don’t know how.
Is the “Your distribution” one Alex’s updated estimates, or is it your (jungofthewon’s) distribution?
The blue distribution labeled “Your distribution” in this snapshot is Alex’s updated 2020 prediction.