The promise of prediction markets was that they are either useful or allow you to take money from rich idiots. I’d say that was fulfilled.
Also, useful is very different from perfect. They are still very adequate for a large variety of questions.
The promise of prediction markets was that they are either useful or allow you to take money from rich idiots. I’d say that was fulfilled.
Also, useful is very different from perfect. They are still very adequate for a large variety of questions.