Would anyone care to compare the risks from lack of rationality to the risks from making as good an effort as possible, but just plain being wrong?
Are they relevantly different? Actually, now that I think about it it seems that ‘lack of rationality’ should be a subset of ‘trying hard and failing’
I think there’s a difference between falling prey to one of the usual biases and just not having enough information.
Of course, but one can lack information and conclude “okay, I don’t have enough information”, or one may not arrive at such conclusion due to the overconfidence (for example).
Would anyone care to compare the risks from lack of rationality to the risks from making as good an effort as possible, but just plain being wrong?
Are they relevantly different? Actually, now that I think about it it seems that ‘lack of rationality’ should be a subset of ‘trying hard and failing’
I think there’s a difference between falling prey to one of the usual biases and just not having enough information.
Of course, but one can lack information and conclude “okay, I don’t have enough information”, or one may not arrive at such conclusion due to the overconfidence (for example).