How about “inflation-adjusted market cap of 50% of the Fortune 500 as at Jan 1st 2024 is down by 80% or more as of Jan 1st 2034”.
It’s a lot easier to measure but I think captures the spirit? I’d be down for an even-odds bet of your chosen size; if I win as a donation of GiveWell / paid to you or your charity of choice if I lose.
I’d like to bet against this, if you want to formalize it enough to have someone judge it in ten years.
Hmm do any big people have their full portfolios public? I’m not super confident on this one but would bet small $
How about “inflation-adjusted market cap of 50% of the Fortune 500 as at Jan 1st 2024 is down by 80% or more as of Jan 1st 2034”.
It’s a lot easier to measure but I think captures the spirit? I’d be down for an even-odds bet of your chosen size; if I win as a donation of GiveWell / paid to you or your charity of choice if I lose.
Ok so the 250 worst-performing F500 corps will be down 80% in a decade? I would do $50 at even odds.
Yep, I’m happy to take the won’t-go-down-like-that side of the bet. See you in ten years!