How about “inflation-adjusted market cap of 50% of the Fortune 500 as at Jan 1st 2024 is down by 80% or more as of Jan 1st 2034”.
It’s a lot easier to measure but I think captures the spirit? I’d be down for an even-odds bet of your chosen size; if I win as a donation of GiveWell / paid to you or your charity of choice if I lose.
How about “inflation-adjusted market cap of 50% of the Fortune 500 as at Jan 1st 2024 is down by 80% or more as of Jan 1st 2034”.
It’s a lot easier to measure but I think captures the spirit? I’d be down for an even-odds bet of your chosen size; if I win as a donation of GiveWell / paid to you or your charity of choice if I lose.
Ok so the 250 worst-performing F500 corps will be down 80% in a decade? I would do $50 at even odds.
Yep, I’m happy to take the won’t-go-down-like-that side of the bet. See you in ten years!