This report was the first report from official sources that made sense to me. Experts are estimating that a large portion of people infected with the virus only show mild symptoms, or are even asymptomatic. Those people are unlikely to get tested in hospitals. If we factor them in, this dilutes the CFR and, according to current estimates, it will likely more than cancel out the delay for confirmed deaths compared to confirmed infections.
Good find. Check Figure 2 - they have the expected numbers of deaths over time in patients identified by February 8 with different case fatality rates. Helpfully, the exact right side of the graph is today, February 20. The current deaths are 11, but several of those were not identified by Febraury 8 - I know for a fact that the 2 Iranian cases, the Korean case, and the Japanese case were not, but I am unable to determine how many of the others were not. Seven puts the central tendency at ~5% but that is definitely an overestimate due to some of the deaths likely being newly identified and the missing of mild cases.
This report was the first report from official sources that made sense to me. Experts are estimating that a large portion of people infected with the virus only show mild symptoms, or are even asymptomatic. Those people are unlikely to get tested in hospitals. If we factor them in, this dilutes the CFR and, according to current estimates, it will likely more than cancel out the delay for confirmed deaths compared to confirmed infections.
Good find. Check Figure 2 - they have the expected numbers of deaths over time in patients identified by February 8 with different case fatality rates. Helpfully, the exact right side of the graph is today, February 20. The current deaths are 11, but several of those were not identified by Febraury 8 - I know for a fact that the 2 Iranian cases, the Korean case, and the Japanese case were not, but I am unable to determine how many of the others were not. Seven puts the central tendency at ~5% but that is definitely an overestimate due to some of the deaths likely being newly identified and the missing of mild cases.