None of the “hard takeoff people” or hard takeoff models predicted or would predict that the sorts of minor productivity advancements we are starting to see would lead to a FOOM by now.
The hard takeoff models predict that there will be less AI-caused productivity advancements before a FOOM than soft takeoff models. Therefore any AI-caused productivity advancements without FOOM are relative evidence against the hard takeoff models.
You might say that this evidence is pretty weak; but it feels hard to discount the evidence too much when there are few concrete claims by hard-takeoff proponents about what advances would surprise them. Everything is kinda prosaic in hindsight.
I’m not sure about that actually. Hard takeoff and soft takeoff disagree about the rate of slope change, not about the absolute height of the line. I guess if you are thinking about the “soft takeoff means shorter timelines” then yeah it also means higher AI progress prior to takeoff, and in particular predicts more stuff happening now. But people generally agree that despite that effect, the overall correlation between short timelines and fast takeoff is positive.
Anyhow, even if you are right, I definitely think the evidence is pretty weak. Both sides make pretty much the exact same retrodictions and were in fact equally unsurprised by the last few years. I agree that Yudkowsky deserves spanking for not working harder to make concrete predictions/bets with Paul, but he did work somewhat hard, and also it’s not like Paul, Ajeya, etc. are going around sticking their necks out much either. Finding concrete stuff to bet on (amongst this group of elite futurists) is hard. I speak from experience here, I’ve talked with Paul and Ajeya and tried to find things in the next 5 years we disagree on and it’s not easy, EVEN THOUGH I HAVE 5-YEAR TIMELINES. We spent about an hour probably. I agree we should do it more.
(Think about you vs. me. We both thought in detail about what our median futures look like. They were pretty similar, especially in the next 5 years!)
The hard takeoff models predict that there will be less AI-caused productivity advancements before a FOOM than soft takeoff models. Therefore any AI-caused productivity advancements without FOOM are relative evidence against the hard takeoff models.
You might say that this evidence is pretty weak; but it feels hard to discount the evidence too much when there are few concrete claims by hard-takeoff proponents about what advances would surprise them. Everything is kinda prosaic in hindsight.
I’m not sure about that actually. Hard takeoff and soft takeoff disagree about the rate of slope change, not about the absolute height of the line. I guess if you are thinking about the “soft takeoff means shorter timelines” then yeah it also means higher AI progress prior to takeoff, and in particular predicts more stuff happening now. But people generally agree that despite that effect, the overall correlation between short timelines and fast takeoff is positive.
Anyhow, even if you are right, I definitely think the evidence is pretty weak. Both sides make pretty much the exact same retrodictions and were in fact equally unsurprised by the last few years. I agree that Yudkowsky deserves spanking for not working harder to make concrete predictions/bets with Paul, but he did work somewhat hard, and also it’s not like Paul, Ajeya, etc. are going around sticking their necks out much either. Finding concrete stuff to bet on (amongst this group of elite futurists) is hard. I speak from experience here, I’ve talked with Paul and Ajeya and tried to find things in the next 5 years we disagree on and it’s not easy, EVEN THOUGH I HAVE 5-YEAR TIMELINES. We spent about an hour probably. I agree we should do it more.
(Think about you vs. me. We both thought in detail about what our median futures look like. They were pretty similar, especially in the next 5 years!)