This is my confident understanding as well. All who say ‘long term effects’ are purely basing this on the ‘we don’t know there aren’t such effects’ style of argument and nothing more, when there’s every reason to believe that if there were such effects we would see signs of them by now and no plausible mechanism for long term effects.
Whereas Covid-19 definitely does have substantial long term negative effects reasonably often for those who don’t die—as OP notes, the estimates are loose, but Long Covid is definitely a thing.
I would rate ‘possibility of unknown long term side effects we have no reason to expect whatsoever’ to be much less of a reason to not get vaccinated than ‘you might feel bad for a day after getting it’ even with a long term orientation. It’s that small.
Is only 1⁄3 of Long Covid sufferers actually having had covid definitely a thing, too? I think it is (or maybe antibody tests give many false positives?)
This is my confident understanding as well. All who say ‘long term effects’ are purely basing this on the ‘we don’t know there aren’t such effects’ style of argument and nothing more, when there’s every reason to believe that if there were such effects we would see signs of them by now and no plausible mechanism for long term effects.
Whereas Covid-19 definitely does have substantial long term negative effects reasonably often for those who don’t die—as OP notes, the estimates are loose, but Long Covid is definitely a thing.
I would rate ‘possibility of unknown long term side effects we have no reason to expect whatsoever’ to be much less of a reason to not get vaccinated than ‘you might feel bad for a day after getting it’ even with a long term orientation. It’s that small.
It’s also the nature of unknown unknowns that you can’t include them in the kind of risk calculator that the OP asks for.
Is only 1⁄3 of Long Covid sufferers actually having had covid definitely a thing, too? I think it is (or maybe antibody tests give many false positives?)