Assume what you do in the counterfactual is equivalent to what you do in IRL, with even/odd swapped. Then TDT says that choosing in the counterfactual ALSO chooses for you in the real world. So you should choose odd there so that you can choose even in the real world and get it right.
Here’s a possible argument.
Assume what you do in the counterfactual is equivalent to what you do in IRL, with even/odd swapped. Then TDT says that choosing in the counterfactual ALSO chooses for you in the real world. So you should choose odd there so that you can choose even in the real world and get it right.
Cheating.
Create a new version of the problem that eliminates that argument then.
It doesn’t apply to my version of the problem.
Elaborate?
“Assume what you do in the counterfactual is equivalent to what you do in IRL, with even/odd swapped” doesn’t hold. See this thread.