Well said. I might quibble with some of the details but I basically agree that the four you list here should theoretically be only mildly correlated with timelines & takeoff views, and that we should try to test how much the correlation is in practice to determine how much of a general doom factor bias people have.
Well said. I might quibble with some of the details but I basically agree that the four you list here should theoretically be only mildly correlated with timelines & takeoff views, and that we should try to test how much the correlation is in practice to determine how much of a general doom factor bias people have.