Insofar as that’s what he thinks, he’s wrong. Short timelines and fast takeoff are positively correlated. However, he argues (correctly) that slow takeoff also causes short timelines, by accelerating R&D progress sooner than it otherwise would have (for a given level of underlying difficulty-of-building-AGI). This effect is not strong enough in my estimation (or in Paul’s if I recall from conversations*) to overcome the other reasons pushing timelines and takeoff to be correlated.
*I think I remember him saying things like “Well yeah obviously if it happens by 2030 it’s probably gonna be a crazy fast takeoff.”
Insofar as that’s what he thinks, he’s wrong. Short timelines and fast takeoff are positively correlated. However, he argues (correctly) that slow takeoff also causes short timelines, by accelerating R&D progress sooner than it otherwise would have (for a given level of underlying difficulty-of-building-AGI). This effect is not strong enough in my estimation (or in Paul’s if I recall from conversations*) to overcome the other reasons pushing timelines and takeoff to be correlated.
*I think I remember him saying things like “Well yeah obviously if it happens by 2030 it’s probably gonna be a crazy fast takeoff.”
did you mean “short timelines” in your third sentence?
Ooops yeah sorry typo will fix