Hmm, ya, fair. Still, who pays who in the intermediate steps isn’t necessarily very informative about where the average credence is or where it’s going.
It is unless it’s clear that a side that made a mistake in entering a lopsided bet. I guess the rule-of-thumb is to follow big bets (which tends to be less clearly lopsided) or bets made by two people whose judgment you trust.
I don’t see how this follows. How would you know ahead of time that a bet is too lopsided in an adversarial setting with one side or both sides withholding private information, their true credences? And how lopsided is enough? Aren’t almost all bets somewhat lopsided?
Since one party will almost surely have more room between the implied credences of the first bet and their own credences, we should expect directional influence in the second bet or (set of bets) whether or not anyone’s beliefs changed. And if their credences aren’t actually changing, we would still expect payments from one side to the other.
Hmm, ya, fair. Still, who pays who in the intermediate steps isn’t necessarily very informative about where the average credence is or where it’s going.
It is unless it’s clear that a side that made a mistake in entering a lopsided bet. I guess the rule-of-thumb is to follow big bets (which tends to be less clearly lopsided) or bets made by two people whose judgment you trust.
I don’t see how this follows. How would you know ahead of time that a bet is too lopsided in an adversarial setting with one side or both sides withholding private information, their true credences? And how lopsided is enough? Aren’t almost all bets somewhat lopsided?
Since one party will almost surely have more room between the implied credences of the first bet and their own credences, we should expect directional influence in the second bet or (set of bets) whether or not anyone’s beliefs changed. And if their credences aren’t actually changing, we would still expect payments from one side to the other.