I don’t see how this follows. How would you know ahead of time that a bet is too lopsided in an adversarial setting with one side or both sides withholding private information, their true credences? And how lopsided is enough? Aren’t almost all bets somewhat lopsided?
Since one party will almost surely have more room between the implied credences of the first bet and their own credences, we should expect directional influence in the second bet or (set of bets) whether or not anyone’s beliefs changed. And if their credences aren’t actually changing, we would still expect payments from one side to the other.
I don’t see how this follows. How would you know ahead of time that a bet is too lopsided in an adversarial setting with one side or both sides withholding private information, their true credences? And how lopsided is enough? Aren’t almost all bets somewhat lopsided?
Since one party will almost surely have more room between the implied credences of the first bet and their own credences, we should expect directional influence in the second bet or (set of bets) whether or not anyone’s beliefs changed. And if their credences aren’t actually changing, we would still expect payments from one side to the other.