I had a look at the literature on calibration and it seems worse than the work done in this thread. Most of the research on scoring rules has been done by educators, psychiatrists, and social scientists. Meanwhile there are several trained mathematicians floating around LW.
Also, I’m not sure if anyone else realises that this is an important problem. To care about it you have to care about human biases and Bayesian probability. On LW these are viewed as just two sides of the rationality coin, but in the outside world people don’t really study them at the same time.
I had a look at the literature on calibration and it seems worse than the work done in this thread. Most of the research on scoring rules has been done by educators, psychiatrists, and social scientists. Meanwhile there are several trained mathematicians floating around LW.
Also, I’m not sure if anyone else realises that this is an important problem. To care about it you have to care about human biases and Bayesian probability. On LW these are viewed as just two sides of the rationality coin, but in the outside world people don’t really study them at the same time.