Vladimir_M’s statement sounds quite insightful but it’s dangerously close to one of these “you can’t prove that there aren’t any dragons in the garage” type things (not being able to think up with examples doesn’t imply they don’t exist because their very nature is that they are elusive).
I actually have a pretty high confidence in Vladimir_M’s model of the world. I don’t put a very high prior on the bits that are unknown to me to be very much less accurate or useful.
I was pointing out that you’ve inferred things about Konkvistador’s state of mind that are highly speculative (but possibly true), but are purporting them as definite truth. (I was literally only commenting on that.)
I’m not dismissing what you are saying. In fact I upvoted your original comment and have updated accordingly. I’m just sharing where this leaves my estimation on how much Vladimir_M thought is useful.
I actually have a pretty high confidence in Vladimir_M’s model of the world. I don’t put a very high prior on the bits that are unknown to me to be very much less accurate or useful.
Seconded.
I don’t really understand the purpose of your reply to my comment.
You’re basically dismissing everything I said because he has a high reputation. Fine, but why tell me?
Stating that someone’s reason for X is definitely Y, based on two sentences… are you a mind-reader?
I see there’s no point trying to have a rational discussion here.
What do mean? (Serious question.)
I was pointing out that you’ve inferred things about Konkvistador’s state of mind that are highly speculative (but possibly true), but are purporting them as definite truth. (I was literally only commenting on that.)
I’m not dismissing what you are saying. In fact I upvoted your original comment and have updated accordingly. I’m just sharing where this leaves my estimation on how much Vladimir_M thought is useful.
So you can update slightly towards confidence in Vladimir_M’s model?