Another in-the-field example of differing reference class intuitions here, on the Metaculus question:
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?
The other commentator started with a prior of actuarial tables on death rates of 58 year old women in the USA, and argued that going from a base rate of 0.3% to 10% means a 33.3x increase in log-odds, which is implausibly high given the evidence entailed.
I thought actuarial tables were not a plausibly good base rate to start from, since most of the Ghislaine Maxwell-relevant bits are not from possibility of natural death.
Hopefully the discussion there is helpful for some lesswrong readers in understanding how different forecasters’ intuitions clash “in practice.”
Isn’t this just messing up Bayes rule on their part? AFAIU, the multiplicative increase in the log odds is not particularly meaningful [Edit: I’m currently interpreting the downvote as either my explanation not being sufficiently charitable or me being wrong about the multiplicative increase in log odds. Would be down to hear more about the mistake I’m making]
Another in-the-field example of differing reference class intuitions here, on the Metaculus question:
Will Ghislaine Maxwell be alive on 1 January 2021?
The other commentator started with a prior of actuarial tables on death rates of 58 year old women in the USA, and argued that going from a base rate of 0.3% to 10% means a 33.3x increase in log-odds, which is implausibly high given the evidence entailed.
I thought actuarial tables were not a plausibly good base rate to start from, since most of the Ghislaine Maxwell-relevant bits are not from possibility of natural death.
Hopefully the discussion there is helpful for some lesswrong readers in understanding how different forecasters’ intuitions clash “in practice.”
Isn’t this just messing up Bayes rule on their part? AFAIU, the multiplicative increase in the log odds is not particularly meaningful [Edit: I’m currently interpreting the downvote as either my explanation not being sufficiently charitable or me being wrong about the multiplicative increase in log odds. Would be down to hear more about the mistake I’m making]