One simple point is that there is no reason to expect AGIs to stop at exactly human level. Even if progress and increase in intelligence is very slow, eventually they become an existential risk, or at least a value risk. Every step in that direction we make now is a step in the wrong direction, which holds even if you believe it’s a small step.
One simple point is that there is no reason to expect AGIs to stop at exactly human level.
This isn’t the first time I heard this, but I don’t think it’s exactly right.
We know that human level is possible, but while super human level being possible seems overwhelmingly likely from considerations like imagining a human with more working memory and running faster we don’t technically know that.
We have a working example of a human level intelligence.
It’s human level intelligences doing the work. Martians work on AI might asymptotically slow down when approaching martian level intelligence without that level being inherently significant for anyone else, and the same for humans, or any AGI of any level working on its own successor for that matter (not that I have any strong belief that this is the case, it’s just an argument for why human level wouldn’t be completely arbitrary as a slow down point)
I’d completely agree with “there is no strong reason to expect AGIs to stop at exactly human level”, “High confidence* in AGIs stopping at exactly human level is irrational” or “expecting AGIs not to stop at exactly human level would be prudent.”
*Personally I’d assign a probability of under 0.2 to the best AGI’s being on a level roughly comparable to human level (let’s say being able to solve any problem except human relationship problems that every IQ 80+ human can solve, but not being better at every task than any human) for at least 50 years (physical time in Earth’s frame of reference, not subjective time; probably means inferior at an equal clock rate but making up for that with speed for most of that time). That’s a lot more than I would assign any other place on the intelligence scale of course.
Could the downvoter please say what they are disagreeing with? I can see at least a dozen mutually contradictory possible angles so “someone thinks something about posting this is wrong” provides almost no useful information.
One simple point is that there is no reason to expect AGIs to stop at exactly human level. Even if progress and increase in intelligence is very slow, eventually they become an existential risk, or at least a value risk. Every step in that direction we make now is a step in the wrong direction, which holds even if you believe it’s a small step.
This isn’t the first time I heard this, but I don’t think it’s exactly right.
We know that human level is possible, but while super human level being possible seems overwhelmingly likely from considerations like imagining a human with more working memory and running faster we don’t technically know that.
We have a working example of a human level intelligence.
It’s human level intelligences doing the work. Martians work on AI might asymptotically slow down when approaching martian level intelligence without that level being inherently significant for anyone else, and the same for humans, or any AGI of any level working on its own successor for that matter (not that I have any strong belief that this is the case, it’s just an argument for why human level wouldn’t be completely arbitrary as a slow down point)
I’d completely agree with “there is no strong reason to expect AGIs to stop at exactly human level”, “High confidence* in AGIs stopping at exactly human level is irrational” or “expecting AGIs not to stop at exactly human level would be prudent.”
*Personally I’d assign a probability of under 0.2 to the best AGI’s being on a level roughly comparable to human level (let’s say being able to solve any problem except human relationship problems that every IQ 80+ human can solve, but not being better at every task than any human) for at least 50 years (physical time in Earth’s frame of reference, not subjective time; probably means inferior at an equal clock rate but making up for that with speed for most of that time). That’s a lot more than I would assign any other place on the intelligence scale of course.
Could the downvoter please say what they are disagreeing with? I can see at least a dozen mutually contradictory possible angles so “someone thinks something about posting this is wrong” provides almost no useful information.
Thanks for the value risk link—that discussion is what I’m interested in.
I guess I’ll reply to it there. The initial quotes from Ben G. and Hanson are similar to my current view.