good question. What would make me think black swans didn’t exist if I had already seen one?
The thing is, its hard to prove that something doesn’t exist—you would at least have to turn every stone and every cloud on the planet.
So, just to clarify: For you to be 100% convinced that there are no aliens on Earth, you would have to examine or be convinced that someone else had examined every stone and cloud on the planet, and found nothing that appeared to be non-Earthly in origin. Is that right?
good question. What would make me think black swans didn’t exist if I had already seen one? The thing is, its hard to prove that something doesn’t exist—you would at least have to turn every stone and every cloud on the planet.
So, just to clarify: For you to be 100% convinced that there are no aliens on Earth, you would have to examine or be convinced that someone else had examined every stone and cloud on the planet, and found nothing that appeared to be non-Earthly in origin. Is that right?
That would be true of a lot of people, so how about we set the weaker standard of being 99.99% convinced?
I’m writing a bayesian calculation on this. I will come back when I’m done. It will help me and others assess the probability of aliens on earth.