And lucky outcome could be defined by the difference between your previous expectation and updated expectation for the actual prize. But in both cases, I think you’d need to work with something like “knowledge about prior reviewed in light of new evidence” (reviewed knowledge about prior, not updated prior=posterior), compared with “knowledge about prior before that”.
And lucky outcome could be defined by the difference between your previous expectation and updated expectation for the actual prize. But in both cases, I think you’d need to work with something like “knowledge about prior reviewed in light of new evidence” (reviewed knowledge about prior, not updated prior=posterior), compared with “knowledge about prior before that”.