Yep, the last two years have basically gone about how people expected. Specifically, the people at leading AGI companies like OpenAI and DeepMind whose AGI timelines (based on public comments in interviews and talks, though I can’t be bothered to dredge them up right now*) are “roughly in the second half of the 20′s.” They totally called all this stuff.
[ETA: There have also been people with 30-year timelines who called it. I’m thinking of Ajeya Cotra and Paul Christiano primarily.]
*I feel a bit bad about not having sources here & if someone cares push me on this and I can try to find them again. I think I’m referring to something Kaplan said in a Q&A about the scaling laws paper, and something Sam Altman said on Twitter or in an interview, and maybe something Demis Hassabis said in an interview also, and an old 2009 blog post from Shane Legg.
Right, it’s not clear to me that this news should make you update against the Bio Anchors timelines vs what you previously did. (Most of my update has just been that the human-lifetime bio anchor seems more likely, and that I’d reduce the size of the preemptive update against it.)
Yep, the last two years have basically gone about how people expected. Specifically, the people at leading AGI companies like OpenAI and DeepMind whose AGI timelines (based on public comments in interviews and talks, though I can’t be bothered to dredge them up right now*) are “roughly in the second half of the 20′s.” They totally called all this stuff.
[ETA: There have also been people with 30-year timelines who called it. I’m thinking of Ajeya Cotra and Paul Christiano primarily.]
*I feel a bit bad about not having sources here & if someone cares push me on this and I can try to find them again. I think I’m referring to something Kaplan said in a Q&A about the scaling laws paper, and something Sam Altman said on Twitter or in an interview, and maybe something Demis Hassabis said in an interview also, and an old 2009 blog post from Shane Legg.
Right, it’s not clear to me that this news should make you update against the Bio Anchors timelines vs what you previously did. (Most of my update has just been that the human-lifetime bio anchor seems more likely, and that I’d reduce the size of the preemptive update against it.)
Agreed.
Some relevant Altman tweets: 1, 2, 3