Of course, your mileage may vary. I’d propose that instead of giving only one (expected) time, there should be a low and a high estimate (e.g. such that you’re quite certain the task will take longer than X but less than Y for most people).
Should we respond with what is our experience (classic Outside View framing—how long did this take me last time?) or what we think is ‘average’? (How long does the average project in this reference class take?)
Of course, your mileage may vary. I’d propose that instead of giving only one (expected) time, there should be a low and a high estimate (e.g. such that you’re quite certain the task will take longer than X but less than Y for most people).
Should we respond with what is our experience (classic Outside View framing—how long did this take me last time?) or what we think is ‘average’? (How long does the average project in this reference class take?)