There is a chance that the extra missing ships come from unknown unknowns. I will spend gold as if they do not.
I give the merpeople 45gp tribute, reducing my absolute risk by 5.6% per trip.
I outfit the lower decks with 20 more oars for 20gp, reducing my absolute risk by 4.9% per trip. All from demon whales.
I purchase one cannon for 10gp, reducing my absolute risk by 0.1% per trip; Nessie can’t sink me.
I arm the carpenters for 20gp, reducing my absolute risk by 0.2% per trip; crabs can’t sink me.
Altogether I spend 95gp to reduce my risk from 10.6% per trip to 0% per trip, and report that costs may be saved if desired by not really telling anyone about cannons or carpenters, if the value of a successful voyage plus the cost of replacing a boat and crew is greater than about 10000 gp.
My method was to inspect graphs, noting that most encounters do not sink ships, noting that only the kraken seems to have any time-based concerns but that krakens do not sink ships and that I’ll likely take the full insurance against them anyway due to demon whales, and noting that crabs appear to have some sort of simple linear decline, Nessie is likely normalish (I’m guessing something like 4d12+60), lots of things are normal and some look bimodal, demon whales are probably normal—fit − 109+-13ish, and merpeople are VERY SCARY because if they’re bimodal then the second hump kills a lot of sailors. So then I estimated how many ships sink due to crabs (42), Nessie (23), and whales (1070), leaving 1135 from unknown causes. PROBABLY THE VERY SCARY MERPEOPLE.
There is a chance that the extra missing ships come from unknown unknowns. I will spend gold as if they do not.
I give the merpeople 45gp tribute, reducing my absolute risk by 5.6% per trip.
I outfit the lower decks with 20 more oars for 20gp, reducing my absolute risk by 4.9% per trip. All from demon whales.
I purchase one cannon for 10gp, reducing my absolute risk by 0.1% per trip; Nessie can’t sink me.
I arm the carpenters for 20gp, reducing my absolute risk by 0.2% per trip; crabs can’t sink me.
Altogether I spend 95gp to reduce my risk from 10.6% per trip to 0% per trip, and report that costs may be saved if desired by not really telling anyone about cannons or carpenters, if the value of a successful voyage plus the cost of replacing a boat and crew is greater than about 10000 gp.
My method was to inspect graphs, noting that most encounters do not sink ships, noting that only the kraken seems to have any time-based concerns but that krakens do not sink ships and that I’ll likely take the full insurance against them anyway due to demon whales, and noting that crabs appear to have some sort of simple linear decline, Nessie is likely normalish (I’m guessing something like 4d12+60), lots of things are normal and some look bimodal, demon whales are probably normal—fit − 109+-13ish, and merpeople are VERY SCARY because if they’re bimodal then the second hump kills a lot of sailors. So then I estimated how many ships sink due to crabs (42), Nessie (23), and whales (1070), leaving 1135 from unknown causes. PROBABLY THE VERY SCARY MERPEOPLE.