It wouldn’t have to be forever. It would on the mainline be the about one-month duration of the peak, after which one would see that there are no new catastrophic variants. If there actually is a new catastrophic variant, then one can keep borders closed around that country for the… half a year? it takes to develop/distribute vaccines/treatment.
I’m confused what you think this accomplishes—by the time you know to close the border the new variant is already in your border. Even if a new variant arose during the month you’re closed, you probably open up before you know it exists, and lose anyway.
Yes I’m not talking about reacting to a new variant by closing, only about closing in advance. If a variant will spread across borders months before it is discovered because we can’t afford to sequence every case, then I agree this doesn’t work. I assume we don’t have a poolable test that excludes known variants.
It wouldn’t have to be forever. It would on the mainline be the about one-month duration of the peak, after which one would see that there are no new catastrophic variants. If there actually is a new catastrophic variant, then one can keep borders closed around that country for the… half a year? it takes to develop/distribute vaccines/treatment.
I’m confused what you think this accomplishes—by the time you know to close the border the new variant is already in your border. Even if a new variant arose during the month you’re closed, you probably open up before you know it exists, and lose anyway.
Yes I’m not talking about reacting to a new variant by closing, only about closing in advance. If a variant will spread across borders months before it is discovered because we can’t afford to sequence every case, then I agree this doesn’t work. I assume we don’t have a poolable test that excludes known variants.